How Would Democracy in China Play Out?

By Wang Dan 王丹, translated by Ted Yang

China might be under CCP control today, but that does not mean that the party necessarily represents the future of the country.

The results of the presidential election will have a significant impact on the development of cross-state relations. But regardless of whether Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) or his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) counterpart Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) wins the election, both candidates should pay attention to the effect on Chinese democratization and cross-strait relations.

The next 10 years will be a critical period in China's development. A couple factors are especially important.

First, as nationalism continues to ferment, the authorities will engage in the careful manipulation of public opinion.

Second, the strength of China, and especially its military, will continue to grow.

If it keeps growing at the current speed, the risk that China will attack Taiwan will increase.

However, a factor that cannot be determined is the nature of the change of the Chinese state over the next 10 years.

Even if the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) insists on highly centralized rule, modern governments will make such rule more difficult, weakening state control of society.

Thus it is important to note to what degree civil society in China will influence the Chinese government in the next 10 years.

The question of whether or not China will democratize is key for cross-strait relations.

It therefore is logical for Chinese democratization to be at the center of Taiwan's policy on China.

This focus provides a long term view of the situation and is in the best interests of the nation.

First, pushing for Chinese democracy helps improve Taiwan's international image.

Taiwan is inferior to China economically, militarily and diplomatically.

Taiwan is only superior to China in its form of government. By upholding democracy, Taiwan can manifest its unique value and gain support and sympathy from the international community -- a strategic advantage over China.

Second, the US would also support a push for Chinese democracy. Since US President George W. Bush took office, and especially during US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's term, the US has put a heavy emphasis on promoting democracy all over the world. If Taiwan actively promotes the democratization of China, there will only be praise from the US.

Finally, a push for democracy in China could also gain the support of the Chinese people.

China might be under CCP control today, but that does not mean that the party necessarily represents the future of the country.

Visionary politicians should focus on the budding civil society in China. If Taiwan can offer support for China's democratization, it might win over public opinion there.

No matter where Taiwan is headed, it is vital that it wins the goodwill of the Chinese people.

Wang Dan is a member of the Chinese democracy movement.