China Makes Another Miscalculation

Minister of Foreign Affairs James Huang (黃志芳) returned to Taiwan on Tuesday following his unsuccessful last-ditch mission to save diplomatic ties with Malawi.

Malawi's refusal to receive Huang means a switch of recognition to China now looks inevitable and it will mark the latest strike in Beijing's war of attrition to win the allegiance of the nation's allies.

But one could argue that -- when it is made official -- neither China nor Malawi will prosper, as neither China's geopolitical ambitions nor the plight of the citizens of Malawi will be advanced from the establishment of relations.

Apart from the opportunity to further decrease Taiwan's international space and reduce its number of allies, China's other reason for courting African countries is to secure access to the globe's diminishing natural resources, vital if it is to keep its burgeoning economy ticking over and its massive population pacified. In this respect Malawi, with its unexploited deposits of uranium and bauxite, is a useful acquisition.

Beijing reportedly offered the government of Malawi a financial package totaling US$6 billion in return for breaking ties with Taipei and it is understandable that a poverty-stricken nation like Malawi would be tempted by such a generous offer, given that its annual GDP stands at around US$7 billion. It is unlikely, however, that any of this cash will trickle down to the Malawian population and past experience has shown they will not receive the same medical, agricultural and technical help from Beijing as they have from Taipei's missions.

Many other African countries, such as Angola, Mozambique and Sudan, have given China's unfettered access to their natural resources in return for cash, construction projects and economic development, but more often than not the results fail to live up to the promises.

Human rights activists and foreign aid workers in these countries have voiced concerns that, like European nations before them, China's involvement in Africa often only serves to enrich the continent's already corrupt leaders. BBC reports have also detailed how Chinese construction firms bring in Chinese workers because they are unwilling to train the locals and impart vital skills to the Africans. Peasant Chinese farmers are even being sent to work the African land in an attempt to relieve pressure on land in China. In some cases, locals allege that prisoners are being imported to do hard labor.

This has led African activists to question China's motives and has generated accusations of a new era of imperialism.

Ministry officials expect Malawi to announce its decision to recognize China within the next few days, just in time for Saturday's legislative election -- chosen by Beijing to cause maximum embarrassment to the government.

But China should have learned from its previous ham-fisted attempts -- both direct and indirect -- to meddle in Taiwan's elections, that intervention has the opposite effect, producing a galvanizing effect on large sections of the Taiwanese population. The more China attacks, the more people come to detest its belligerent bullying.

In contrast to viewing the latest loss of an ally as an indication of Taiwan's weakness and another step on the road to international obscurity, people will view it as China's latest insult to Taiwan's sovereignty.

Losing one more ally to China does not really do that much harm to Taiwan's interests, but it makes Beijing's job of achieving its dream of "eventual unification" that much harder.

Taipei Times Editorial, January 10, 2008.