Stagflation is a term describing an economy with both stagnation, which is basically recession and inflation at the same time.
It's a tricky situation for governments because the monetary tools available cannot solve both problems at the same time, and more so, using one tool to relieve the effects of one condition exacerbates the other.
Raising interest rates is believed to exacerbate stagnation, and the primary stagnation-fighting tool of lowering interest rates will exacerbate inflation.
According to Mr. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell, there is one, and only one, solution to stagflation which is to raise interest rates to cure inflation and increase deficit spending to cure stagnation.
Will the solution stated here be the course of action governments partake?
2008年7月3日 星期四
2008年6月30日 星期一
8 Big Mistakes You Could Be Making At Work
By Liz Wolgemuth
By now, everyone knows the basic mistakes to avoid at work: no flip-flops, no swearing, no offensive downloads, and no irate E-mails. But there are plenty of other faux pas that can do harm to an employee's or manager's reputation in the office or with clients. Sometimes, these lesser-known errors are tough to learn to avoid. Luckily, the careers bloggers who contribute to U.S. News's On Careers: Outside Voices have come to the rescue. Here are eight mistakes they've spotted that you might not have known you were making:
Talking about politics:
Political opinions uttered around the water cooler can hurt office relations--especially if you're the boss, says G.L. Hoffman, chairman of JobDig and author of What Would Dad Say. Bosses who openly favor a particular candidate will appear to be taking sides with employees who favor the same one, Hoffman says. Even for nonmanagers, politics is a quick way to damage relationships with clients or vendors.
Quietly absorbing the increased price of gas:
You're paying through the nose to get to the office every morning, so why not take advantage of it? Blogger Andrew G.R. of Jobacle says this is a great time to ask for a raise. You might not get it, but you will have laid the groundwork for future negotiations, he says. Also, if you get turned down, you can take the opportunity to lobby for a telecommuting day each week.
Writing modest self-appraisals:
There is plenty of reason to show humility at the office--most of the time. When it comes to writing your self-appraisal, however, modesty is ill-placed, says Suzanne Lucas of Evil HR Lady. Your boss is almost certainly too busy to keep tabs on all your accomplishments throughout the year. The self-appraisal is an ideal time to show off all the terrific projects you've helmed and clients you've brought on. Just be honest, Lucas says.
Spending too little time listening:
It's easy to think that your job is to be a big thinker and a great achiever. But much of the time, the people around you just need to be heard. A good listener can stand out in an office of big shots. Michael Wade, author of Execupundit, writes that he once knew an executive "whose career success was widely attributed to his extraordinary ability to listen. When he was with you, he was with you."
Downplaying your mistakes:
Sure, you're nervous in the face of your error, but acting like it's nothing won't make it nothing. Your boss might very well end up more concerned with your blasé attitude than with the mistake itself, says Alison Green of Ask A Manager.
Not using your vacation time:
You think you're too busy and you think it's too expensive, but take a vacation anyway. "Vacation is given for a reason--you're not impressing people by failing to take it," writes Grant Harmon, who blogs at Newly Corporate. "In fact, you're proving that you're not able to balance work/life." Use the time to restore your energy. Then head back to the office looking refreshed and ready for work.
Talking yourself out of dreaming: Sure, dreaming can lead to wildly ridiculous ideas and outrageous goals, but outrageous goals get achieved all the time. Still, most people shut their dreams down pretty quickly. Curt Rosengren of The M.A.P. Maker suggests, instead, that you assume "the only possible outcome is success, and then challenge yourself to prove how that can happen." You're talking away the critic and forcing yourself to get creative.
Blindly accepting a promotion: Most people tend to think that it's better to get ahead, but many find that a promotion is no improvement on their previous job and barely--or not at all--worth the new title. Before you accept a promotion, ask some key questions, suggests Jobacle's Andrew G.R.: How much more work would be involved? How much more money? What kind of staff would you be inheriting? Also, get an idea of what the next career step would be, he says. You don't want to make a leap--and find out you're at a dead end.
By now, everyone knows the basic mistakes to avoid at work: no flip-flops, no swearing, no offensive downloads, and no irate E-mails. But there are plenty of other faux pas that can do harm to an employee's or manager's reputation in the office or with clients. Sometimes, these lesser-known errors are tough to learn to avoid. Luckily, the careers bloggers who contribute to U.S. News's On Careers: Outside Voices have come to the rescue. Here are eight mistakes they've spotted that you might not have known you were making:
Talking about politics:
Political opinions uttered around the water cooler can hurt office relations--especially if you're the boss, says G.L. Hoffman, chairman of JobDig and author of What Would Dad Say. Bosses who openly favor a particular candidate will appear to be taking sides with employees who favor the same one, Hoffman says. Even for nonmanagers, politics is a quick way to damage relationships with clients or vendors.
Quietly absorbing the increased price of gas:
You're paying through the nose to get to the office every morning, so why not take advantage of it? Blogger Andrew G.R. of Jobacle says this is a great time to ask for a raise. You might not get it, but you will have laid the groundwork for future negotiations, he says. Also, if you get turned down, you can take the opportunity to lobby for a telecommuting day each week.
Writing modest self-appraisals:
There is plenty of reason to show humility at the office--most of the time. When it comes to writing your self-appraisal, however, modesty is ill-placed, says Suzanne Lucas of Evil HR Lady. Your boss is almost certainly too busy to keep tabs on all your accomplishments throughout the year. The self-appraisal is an ideal time to show off all the terrific projects you've helmed and clients you've brought on. Just be honest, Lucas says.
Spending too little time listening:
It's easy to think that your job is to be a big thinker and a great achiever. But much of the time, the people around you just need to be heard. A good listener can stand out in an office of big shots. Michael Wade, author of Execupundit, writes that he once knew an executive "whose career success was widely attributed to his extraordinary ability to listen. When he was with you, he was with you."
Downplaying your mistakes:
Sure, you're nervous in the face of your error, but acting like it's nothing won't make it nothing. Your boss might very well end up more concerned with your blasé attitude than with the mistake itself, says Alison Green of Ask A Manager.
Not using your vacation time:
You think you're too busy and you think it's too expensive, but take a vacation anyway. "Vacation is given for a reason--you're not impressing people by failing to take it," writes Grant Harmon, who blogs at Newly Corporate. "In fact, you're proving that you're not able to balance work/life." Use the time to restore your energy. Then head back to the office looking refreshed and ready for work.
Talking yourself out of dreaming: Sure, dreaming can lead to wildly ridiculous ideas and outrageous goals, but outrageous goals get achieved all the time. Still, most people shut their dreams down pretty quickly. Curt Rosengren of The M.A.P. Maker suggests, instead, that you assume "the only possible outcome is success, and then challenge yourself to prove how that can happen." You're talking away the critic and forcing yourself to get creative.
Blindly accepting a promotion: Most people tend to think that it's better to get ahead, but many find that a promotion is no improvement on their previous job and barely--or not at all--worth the new title. Before you accept a promotion, ask some key questions, suggests Jobacle's Andrew G.R.: How much more work would be involved? How much more money? What kind of staff would you be inheriting? Also, get an idea of what the next career step would be, he says. You don't want to make a leap--and find out you're at a dead end.
2008年6月26日 星期四
Graduating to a Happy, Financially Secure Future
by Laura Rowley of Money & Happiness
Every year around this time, the New York Times prints a roundup of commencement addresses. I always find a little inspiration there to cut out and stick on my office wall. This year, its author J.K. Rowling's address to Harvard grads about the benefits of failure -- although if I were to nominate a group for the "least likely to fail" award, it would probably be that audience.
In any case, I had some thoughts for my own commencement address. Here's what I would tell the class of 2008 about money.
Believe the Clichés
Personal finance advice is so similar, and so often repeated, it's become a cliché:
• Live within your means.
• Set up an emergency fund with three months of living expenses.
• Stay out of debt.
• Join your company's 401(k) plan or open an individual retirement account; set aside at least 10 percent of your pre-tax income every year.
• Invest in a diversified portfolio of mutual funds to help your money grow over time, and make sure you're not paying too much in fees.
Clichés are easy to take for granted and easy to tune out. But here's the truth: Believe these clichés. Because if you actually follow the advice, it will transform your life.
The Roaring 20s
I'm convinced that real happiness comes from identifying your values, and then being brave enough to expend your strongest talents and best energy in their service. I think genuine happiness comes from naming what you care about most deeply, setting priorities around those values, and then translating them into real, concrete goals. Money is one instrument in the toolbox of resources and people and experiences that help you journey down that path toward the person you were meant to be.
Your 20s represent a personal finance paradox: You have the most financial power that you may ever have because of the phenomenon of compounding. (Someone who saves $2,000 a year for retirement between age 21 and 30 and then stops will have a bigger nest egg than someone who starts at 31 and saves until they're 65.) At the same time, your 20s can be a bit of a bust in terms of figuring out why you were put on the planet.
It's a confusing decade -- you charge out of college knowing everything and ready to rule the world, and spend the next decade realizing you know almost nothing at all. Then, in your 30s and 40s, you recognize that it's OK to know almost nothing -- and is actually a finer way to approach life, because you really listen to and learn from other people, take risks, and benefit from mistakes and failure. (If you continue to simply know everything, you don't grow and become an arrogant bore.)
The Ghosts of Purchases Past
So here's the problem: Many people lurch around in their 20s trying to establish their identities. One day, you pick up a magazine or see a television show that suggests one can establish an identity by buying $500 designer shoes. Or $900 designer golf clubs. Or some other stupid thing that costs a whole lot less to manufacture than you paid for it. Because you weren't just paying for straps of leather or sticks of iron but for an identity attached to a lifestyle that somebody made up in a brainstorming session in an advertising firm somewhere in New York, or in a scriptwriting meeting in Los Angeles.
And this isn't entirely your fault. You're bombarded with signals to buy in a way previous generations were not. There are 1,000 cable channels telling you on a daily basis that your face, body, home, and possessions are in need of an extreme makeover. Technology and credit card companies have made it effortless to act on those impulses.
And then you get into your 30s and 40s and have a better understanding of who you are and why you were put on the planet. You're now ready to use money as a tool to help walk down that road. That's when your 20s can come back to haunt you. Maybe you're still paying the credit card for the $500 shoes and the $900 golf clubs (or for all the money spent in chic bars showing off the shoes, and at golf courses showing off the clubs).
Reality Bites
So you had some fun, but now you're playing catch up. That's usually when the magical thinking starts. You do things like buy a house with an adjustable rate mortgage (because you didn't save up a home down payment). Or you listen to some guru who tells you to put everything you have in gold or oil, or to buy stocks on margin or speculative real estate with no money down.
And maybe you have a couple of kids, and the media that told you to buy the shoes and golf clubs is now suggesting you invest in Suzuki violin lessons, private tutors, and traveling sports teams.
You're scrambling to save for retirement, scrambling to meet your rising mortgage payments, getting in deeper on that credit card to take a few fun vacations with your kids before they grow up and leave you, and God knows how you'll pay for college (since the gold-oil-stocks-real estate thing didn't work for you the way it did for the guru).
And it's really hard to follow your deepest values, and pursue that thing you were meant to do and become that person you were meant to be, because you're really stressed out about money.
Happiness Gained
I was a naïve kid from the Midwest living in New York City in my 20s -- naïve enough to believe all those clichés my father told me about staying out of debt and saving for retirement. So I did both -- it was just something I made a requirement, as routine as brushing my teeth. (And I had a lot of fun at the same time; I just bought my shoes at sample sales, frequented bars with free happy-hour buffets, and traveled to Europe on a shoestring.)
And when I was 37 (which happened a hell of lot sooner than I expected) and working 14 hours a day in television with two kids under age three, I could walk away from my full-time job and start my own thing. My values had shifted, and I knew I had to find a better balance between work and family. I had the luxury of using money to journey down the road in pursuit of my values -- not because I had a big win in oil or gold or sold a bazillion get-rich-quick books, but because I had stayed out of debt and consistently saved for almost two decades.
And that has made me happy.
Commence with Being Happy
So here's my advice:
• Live within your means.
• Set up an emergency fund with three months of living expenses.
• Stay out of debt.
• Join your company's 401(k) plan or open an individual retirement account, and save at least 10 percent of your pre-tax income every year.
• Invest in a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds to help your money grow over time, and make sure you're not paying too much in fees.
Believe in the clichés. Follow the advice, make it as routine as brushing your teeth. Because one day it will open up a world of options, and transform money from a potentially huge source of stress into a resource to help you follow your values -- and hopefully figure out why you're on the planet.
Every year around this time, the New York Times prints a roundup of commencement addresses. I always find a little inspiration there to cut out and stick on my office wall. This year, its author J.K. Rowling's address to Harvard grads about the benefits of failure -- although if I were to nominate a group for the "least likely to fail" award, it would probably be that audience.
In any case, I had some thoughts for my own commencement address. Here's what I would tell the class of 2008 about money.
Believe the Clichés
Personal finance advice is so similar, and so often repeated, it's become a cliché:
• Live within your means.
• Set up an emergency fund with three months of living expenses.
• Stay out of debt.
• Join your company's 401(k) plan or open an individual retirement account; set aside at least 10 percent of your pre-tax income every year.
• Invest in a diversified portfolio of mutual funds to help your money grow over time, and make sure you're not paying too much in fees.
Clichés are easy to take for granted and easy to tune out. But here's the truth: Believe these clichés. Because if you actually follow the advice, it will transform your life.
The Roaring 20s
I'm convinced that real happiness comes from identifying your values, and then being brave enough to expend your strongest talents and best energy in their service. I think genuine happiness comes from naming what you care about most deeply, setting priorities around those values, and then translating them into real, concrete goals. Money is one instrument in the toolbox of resources and people and experiences that help you journey down that path toward the person you were meant to be.
Your 20s represent a personal finance paradox: You have the most financial power that you may ever have because of the phenomenon of compounding. (Someone who saves $2,000 a year for retirement between age 21 and 30 and then stops will have a bigger nest egg than someone who starts at 31 and saves until they're 65.) At the same time, your 20s can be a bit of a bust in terms of figuring out why you were put on the planet.
It's a confusing decade -- you charge out of college knowing everything and ready to rule the world, and spend the next decade realizing you know almost nothing at all. Then, in your 30s and 40s, you recognize that it's OK to know almost nothing -- and is actually a finer way to approach life, because you really listen to and learn from other people, take risks, and benefit from mistakes and failure. (If you continue to simply know everything, you don't grow and become an arrogant bore.)
The Ghosts of Purchases Past
So here's the problem: Many people lurch around in their 20s trying to establish their identities. One day, you pick up a magazine or see a television show that suggests one can establish an identity by buying $500 designer shoes. Or $900 designer golf clubs. Or some other stupid thing that costs a whole lot less to manufacture than you paid for it. Because you weren't just paying for straps of leather or sticks of iron but for an identity attached to a lifestyle that somebody made up in a brainstorming session in an advertising firm somewhere in New York, or in a scriptwriting meeting in Los Angeles.
And this isn't entirely your fault. You're bombarded with signals to buy in a way previous generations were not. There are 1,000 cable channels telling you on a daily basis that your face, body, home, and possessions are in need of an extreme makeover. Technology and credit card companies have made it effortless to act on those impulses.
And then you get into your 30s and 40s and have a better understanding of who you are and why you were put on the planet. You're now ready to use money as a tool to help walk down that road. That's when your 20s can come back to haunt you. Maybe you're still paying the credit card for the $500 shoes and the $900 golf clubs (or for all the money spent in chic bars showing off the shoes, and at golf courses showing off the clubs).
Reality Bites
So you had some fun, but now you're playing catch up. That's usually when the magical thinking starts. You do things like buy a house with an adjustable rate mortgage (because you didn't save up a home down payment). Or you listen to some guru who tells you to put everything you have in gold or oil, or to buy stocks on margin or speculative real estate with no money down.
And maybe you have a couple of kids, and the media that told you to buy the shoes and golf clubs is now suggesting you invest in Suzuki violin lessons, private tutors, and traveling sports teams.
You're scrambling to save for retirement, scrambling to meet your rising mortgage payments, getting in deeper on that credit card to take a few fun vacations with your kids before they grow up and leave you, and God knows how you'll pay for college (since the gold-oil-stocks-real estate thing didn't work for you the way it did for the guru).
And it's really hard to follow your deepest values, and pursue that thing you were meant to do and become that person you were meant to be, because you're really stressed out about money.
Happiness Gained
I was a naïve kid from the Midwest living in New York City in my 20s -- naïve enough to believe all those clichés my father told me about staying out of debt and saving for retirement. So I did both -- it was just something I made a requirement, as routine as brushing my teeth. (And I had a lot of fun at the same time; I just bought my shoes at sample sales, frequented bars with free happy-hour buffets, and traveled to Europe on a shoestring.)
And when I was 37 (which happened a hell of lot sooner than I expected) and working 14 hours a day in television with two kids under age three, I could walk away from my full-time job and start my own thing. My values had shifted, and I knew I had to find a better balance between work and family. I had the luxury of using money to journey down the road in pursuit of my values -- not because I had a big win in oil or gold or sold a bazillion get-rich-quick books, but because I had stayed out of debt and consistently saved for almost two decades.
And that has made me happy.
Commence with Being Happy
So here's my advice:
• Live within your means.
• Set up an emergency fund with three months of living expenses.
• Stay out of debt.
• Join your company's 401(k) plan or open an individual retirement account, and save at least 10 percent of your pre-tax income every year.
• Invest in a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds to help your money grow over time, and make sure you're not paying too much in fees.
Believe in the clichés. Follow the advice, make it as routine as brushing your teeth. Because one day it will open up a world of options, and transform money from a potentially huge source of stress into a resource to help you follow your values -- and hopefully figure out why you're on the planet.
2008年6月11日 星期三
馬英九政權倒台後的台中美三國關係
Very interesting POV.
馬英九政權倒台後的台中美三國關係
一個人想要自由選擇自己的前途，還會因為自己是不是權貴而不同，難道選擇的自由，只限於這些權貴嗎？
康建淽2008/06/11
康建淽暑假獲得美國華府智庫的獎學金，到智庫擔任訪問研究員的暑期工作，因此這個暑假就不回台灣了。
康建淽這次獲邀研究的主體是『馬英九政權倒台後的台中美三國關係』，重點在分析從美國的觀點，分析馬英九政權是否會倒台，何時倒台，與倒台的速度，美國政府應該如何因應，確保美國在東亞的勢力與利益。
就像康建淽2007年11月所寫的『台灣共和國第一任總統: 馬英九總統』。美國透過讓馬英九當選，有效控制台灣國內政治的局勢，讓馬英九押著國內外省少數族群，與泛藍媒體，透過壓制住這一群過去影響台灣過去 8年穩定的因素，讓馬英九成為台灣繼續保持獨立的公僕與拉車狗。
諸位網友不見，馬英九當選與就職後，過去在陳水扁時代『許多媒體，紛紛透過假資料與特定立場的學者，看壞台灣，並藉此製造民進黨政府執政不佳的印象，營造出國民黨輪替的正當性，或是，台灣一定要與中國整合或統一的言論。馬英九在2008當上總統後，媒體從此不敢看壞台灣，甚至紛紛製造出台灣一定好的言論，鼓勵台灣人消費，與外資進入。』
這些用新聞自由與人民知的權利為名，卻去進行政治鬥爭陳水扁政權的媒體與名嘴，現在紛紛站在支持馬政權的一邊，新聞報導避重就輕，不敢太過批評，以免傷了自己的嘔像。可笑的，自己卻忘了過去所宣稱『媒體是第三權，要一直監督政府』的說法與大旗。
七月4日，開放中國觀光客來台灣國內觀光，卻反而讓一般沒有與中國人接觸過的台灣人，經過與中國人互動的第一手經驗，感受到中國人的水準與不同，因此更深化台灣人不是中國人，台灣不想與中國統一的政治發展。許多中國觀光客，更分享自己住在中國共產黨政權下的經驗，讓台灣人更了解中國經濟與政治發展的內幕。
好笑的，七月4日不僅是美國獨立紀念日，未來更因為馬英九的開放中國觀光客的政策，讓台灣更進一步與中國分離，邁向永久法理獨立的發展。可能成為台灣共和國的獨立紀念日。
台灣人一方面對中國觀光客，『來一個打一個』，口袋賺的飽飽，與中共事與願違的，台灣經濟越好，台灣意識持續升高，台灣人越不想與中國統一。
美國的長期戰略是，先透過外省人馬英九與國民黨政權安住台灣內部，讓台灣國民將台灣意識，逐漸深化到台灣人每一個人的心中，讓台灣獨立成為每一個台灣人，每天生活呼吸的一部份等。國際政治環境許可，美國才用最少的成本，讓台灣獨立，確保美國在東亞的利益可以保持。
套在馬英九政權頸上的國際與國內的繩索，讓馬英九與其代表的政黨，變成一群替台灣人民服務的拉車狗，只可以在台灣人民許可的保持實質獨立的情況下執政。民主發展的台灣，讓馬英九政權動輒得疚，不過過度往中國傾斜。
許多網友都已觀察到，馬英九政權在短命的蜜月期時間，所發生的物價上漲，『台灣郵政』改名爭議，『訪華』與『訪台』的政策急轉彎，高級官員的綠卡事件，可以看出馬英九政權，如果馬英九政權做出不符合台灣人民集體利益可以隨時倒台。
過去在國府蔣家政權時代，只可以當國民黨外省權貴奴隸的台灣人，現在終於享受到讓外省權貴吹喇叭的服務，透過台灣幾十年所發展的民主機制，馴服一群權貴，替台灣人做牛作馬。
美國隨時可以透過釋放出馬英九政權高官的綠卡與國籍資訊，以及馬英九政權高官在美國的『人質』[如馬維中等人] 與所持有財產的相關資訊，控制住馬英九政權，可以讓他在美國利益為主，當美國政府的代理人，繼續保持台灣繼續獨立，並在符合美國的利益下與中國接觸，讓美國透過台灣，牽制住中國。
諸位網友們不是看到，在美國洩漏出馬英九政權高官擁有綠卡的消息之後，稍稍試一下勒馬索的強度與力道後，馬英九政權高官雞飛狗跳的窘態，馬英九在總統府幾週不出來，好像在思考『燒炭』一般 【引自一位泛藍名嘴，曾經笑話陳水扁選戰失敗的名言】。
This is what baggage brings you.
台灣人民本來就可有自由遷襲的選擇國籍的自由，可悲的是，這些馬英九政權高官，口口聲聲捍衛中華民國，要和中國統一，用台灣不好，要用【中華】。但輪到他們自己可以自由選擇『統一』的地點，卻都只是美國與加拿大等民主國家統一，先透過持有這些國家的綠卡與楓葉卡，未來可以喪自己去自由選擇的去入藉這些國家，宣誓效忠這些國家。
相反的，台灣人想要自己建立起新國家，想要維持自己民主自由生活方式，不想要自己與子孫被一個共產不自由不民主的國家，強佔與統一，就要受中國武器威脅，以及『背叛中華民國』等大帽子污衊。
一個人想要自由選擇自己的前途，還會因為自己是不是權貴而不同，難道選擇的自由，只限於這些權貴嗎？
馬英九政權會不會倒台，何時倒台，倒台的方式是4年一次的政黨輪替，或是因台灣國內問題被人民推翻，美國政府現在看到一個綠卡事件，就可以整的馬英九政權雞飛狗跳，威信盡失。
美國政府可以知道馬英九政權的容易掌控。
本來擁有綠卡與楓葉卡，不一定代表對中華民國不忠誠，但是政府官員本來就和一般老百姓與企業ceo 不同。政府官員掌握國家機器與龐大預算分配，甚至國家機密。哪一個國家可以允許其政府高官擁有另外其他國家的居留權，去享有治理國家與管理人民的權利。台灣的國民，願意被一群『八國聯軍』式的外國買辦來管理。難道台灣的人才都死光了？台灣本地人才不夠資格來管理自己。難道現在台灣是美國與加拿大的租借地。
擁有這些綠卡與楓葉卡馬英九政權的高官，難道不會因為想保有居留權，受美國與加拿大政府的威脅，做出背叛中華民國與台灣人民的事情?
擁有這些綠卡與楓葉卡馬英九政權的高官，難道不會因為想在綠卡事件中脫身，說出一些可笑的綠卡『自動失效』，『辦過美國簽證就失效』說法的，受美國與加拿大政府的威脅要說出綠卡與楓葉卡失效的正當法律程序，做出出賣中華民國與台灣人民的事情？
全台灣2千3百萬人之中，難道找不到一群乾乾淨淨，正正當當的政府官員，來當我們的公僕？
馬英九政權的脆弱性，在台灣的執政可以不可以符合美國的國家利益，繼續作為美國在東亞的買辦，美國會考量自己的國家利益下，密切觀察。康建淽本次所進行的研究計劃，就是協助發展出不同的SCENARIOS [劇本] ，協助美國智庫作出正確的建議。詳細情況，康建淽在研究進行過程中，再和網友報告了。
〔 資料來源： 油雞不落-康建淽 | 引用網址 〕
馬英九政權倒台後的台中美三國關係
一個人想要自由選擇自己的前途，還會因為自己是不是權貴而不同，難道選擇的自由，只限於這些權貴嗎？
康建淽2008/06/11
康建淽暑假獲得美國華府智庫的獎學金，到智庫擔任訪問研究員的暑期工作，因此這個暑假就不回台灣了。
康建淽這次獲邀研究的主體是『馬英九政權倒台後的台中美三國關係』，重點在分析從美國的觀點，分析馬英九政權是否會倒台，何時倒台，與倒台的速度，美國政府應該如何因應，確保美國在東亞的勢力與利益。
就像康建淽2007年11月所寫的『台灣共和國第一任總統: 馬英九總統』。美國透過讓馬英九當選，有效控制台灣國內政治的局勢，讓馬英九押著國內外省少數族群，與泛藍媒體，透過壓制住這一群過去影響台灣過去 8年穩定的因素，讓馬英九成為台灣繼續保持獨立的公僕與拉車狗。
諸位網友不見，馬英九當選與就職後，過去在陳水扁時代『許多媒體，紛紛透過假資料與特定立場的學者，看壞台灣，並藉此製造民進黨政府執政不佳的印象，營造出國民黨輪替的正當性，或是，台灣一定要與中國整合或統一的言論。馬英九在2008當上總統後，媒體從此不敢看壞台灣，甚至紛紛製造出台灣一定好的言論，鼓勵台灣人消費，與外資進入。』
這些用新聞自由與人民知的權利為名，卻去進行政治鬥爭陳水扁政權的媒體與名嘴，現在紛紛站在支持馬政權的一邊，新聞報導避重就輕，不敢太過批評，以免傷了自己的嘔像。可笑的，自己卻忘了過去所宣稱『媒體是第三權，要一直監督政府』的說法與大旗。
七月4日，開放中國觀光客來台灣國內觀光，卻反而讓一般沒有與中國人接觸過的台灣人，經過與中國人互動的第一手經驗，感受到中國人的水準與不同，因此更深化台灣人不是中國人，台灣不想與中國統一的政治發展。許多中國觀光客，更分享自己住在中國共產黨政權下的經驗，讓台灣人更了解中國經濟與政治發展的內幕。
好笑的，七月4日不僅是美國獨立紀念日，未來更因為馬英九的開放中國觀光客的政策，讓台灣更進一步與中國分離，邁向永久法理獨立的發展。可能成為台灣共和國的獨立紀念日。
台灣人一方面對中國觀光客，『來一個打一個』，口袋賺的飽飽，與中共事與願違的，台灣經濟越好，台灣意識持續升高，台灣人越不想與中國統一。
美國的長期戰略是，先透過外省人馬英九與國民黨政權安住台灣內部，讓台灣國民將台灣意識，逐漸深化到台灣人每一個人的心中，讓台灣獨立成為每一個台灣人，每天生活呼吸的一部份等。國際政治環境許可，美國才用最少的成本，讓台灣獨立，確保美國在東亞的利益可以保持。
套在馬英九政權頸上的國際與國內的繩索，讓馬英九與其代表的政黨，變成一群替台灣人民服務的拉車狗，只可以在台灣人民許可的保持實質獨立的情況下執政。民主發展的台灣，讓馬英九政權動輒得疚，不過過度往中國傾斜。
許多網友都已觀察到，馬英九政權在短命的蜜月期時間，所發生的物價上漲，『台灣郵政』改名爭議，『訪華』與『訪台』的政策急轉彎，高級官員的綠卡事件，可以看出馬英九政權，如果馬英九政權做出不符合台灣人民集體利益可以隨時倒台。
過去在國府蔣家政權時代，只可以當國民黨外省權貴奴隸的台灣人，現在終於享受到讓外省權貴吹喇叭的服務，透過台灣幾十年所發展的民主機制，馴服一群權貴，替台灣人做牛作馬。
美國隨時可以透過釋放出馬英九政權高官的綠卡與國籍資訊，以及馬英九政權高官在美國的『人質』[如馬維中等人] 與所持有財產的相關資訊，控制住馬英九政權，可以讓他在美國利益為主，當美國政府的代理人，繼續保持台灣繼續獨立，並在符合美國的利益下與中國接觸，讓美國透過台灣，牽制住中國。
諸位網友們不是看到，在美國洩漏出馬英九政權高官擁有綠卡的消息之後，稍稍試一下勒馬索的強度與力道後，馬英九政權高官雞飛狗跳的窘態，馬英九在總統府幾週不出來，好像在思考『燒炭』一般 【引自一位泛藍名嘴，曾經笑話陳水扁選戰失敗的名言】。
This is what baggage brings you.
台灣人民本來就可有自由遷襲的選擇國籍的自由，可悲的是，這些馬英九政權高官，口口聲聲捍衛中華民國，要和中國統一，用台灣不好，要用【中華】。但輪到他們自己可以自由選擇『統一』的地點，卻都只是美國與加拿大等民主國家統一，先透過持有這些國家的綠卡與楓葉卡，未來可以喪自己去自由選擇的去入藉這些國家，宣誓效忠這些國家。
相反的，台灣人想要自己建立起新國家，想要維持自己民主自由生活方式，不想要自己與子孫被一個共產不自由不民主的國家，強佔與統一，就要受中國武器威脅，以及『背叛中華民國』等大帽子污衊。
一個人想要自由選擇自己的前途，還會因為自己是不是權貴而不同，難道選擇的自由，只限於這些權貴嗎？
馬英九政權會不會倒台，何時倒台，倒台的方式是4年一次的政黨輪替，或是因台灣國內問題被人民推翻，美國政府現在看到一個綠卡事件，就可以整的馬英九政權雞飛狗跳，威信盡失。
美國政府可以知道馬英九政權的容易掌控。
本來擁有綠卡與楓葉卡，不一定代表對中華民國不忠誠，但是政府官員本來就和一般老百姓與企業ceo 不同。政府官員掌握國家機器與龐大預算分配，甚至國家機密。哪一個國家可以允許其政府高官擁有另外其他國家的居留權，去享有治理國家與管理人民的權利。台灣的國民，願意被一群『八國聯軍』式的外國買辦來管理。難道台灣的人才都死光了？台灣本地人才不夠資格來管理自己。難道現在台灣是美國與加拿大的租借地。
擁有這些綠卡與楓葉卡馬英九政權的高官，難道不會因為想保有居留權，受美國與加拿大政府的威脅，做出背叛中華民國與台灣人民的事情?
擁有這些綠卡與楓葉卡馬英九政權的高官，難道不會因為想在綠卡事件中脫身，說出一些可笑的綠卡『自動失效』，『辦過美國簽證就失效』說法的，受美國與加拿大政府的威脅要說出綠卡與楓葉卡失效的正當法律程序，做出出賣中華民國與台灣人民的事情？
全台灣2千3百萬人之中，難道找不到一群乾乾淨淨，正正當當的政府官員，來當我們的公僕？
馬英九政權的脆弱性，在台灣的執政可以不可以符合美國的國家利益，繼續作為美國在東亞的買辦，美國會考量自己的國家利益下，密切觀察。康建淽本次所進行的研究計劃，就是協助發展出不同的SCENARIOS [劇本] ，協助美國智庫作出正確的建議。詳細情況，康建淽在研究進行過程中，再和網友報告了。
〔 資料來源： 油雞不落-康建淽 | 引用網址 〕
2008年6月4日 星期三
Five Tips for 20-Somethings to Save for Retirement
by Lauren Tara LaCapra
Legend has it that Albert Einstein once called compounding interest the most powerful force in the universe. Unfortunately, that concept has escaped many of those who would benefit most from it: the 20-somethings who have entered the work force but aren't saving up for retirement.
While it can be hard to justify saving for something that will occur decades into the future, financial advisors say its importance can't be understated.
One reason is that Social Security is far from guaranteed: Without reform, the program will not be able to pay out benefits at current levels, starting in 2041. People who are 22 years old now would typically still have at least 10 years to go until retirement at that point.
Another reason is that compounding interest makes saving early far more profitable than starting late.
As an example, Vincent Barbera, director of financial planning at TGS Financial Advisors, offers two different scenarios: Person X deposits $2,000 into an IRA each year from the ages of 22 to 31, then stops, while Person Y deposits $2,000 each year from the ages of 31 to 65. Both have the same interest rate and allow interest to accrue. Person X will earn nearly $50,000 more than Person Y by age 65, even though the latter contributed $50,000 more to the account over 25 additional years.
With that in mind, here are five helpful tips for 20-somethings who want to start preparing for the future:
• Put "surprise" cash into an IRA. Instead of spending that $100 birthday present or $600 rebate check, pretend you never received the money and stick it into your retirement savings account.
• If your company offers a 401K plan, enroll -- even if you put the minimum amount that will be matched. If not, start contributing to your own individual account.
Joseph Birkofer, a financial planner at Legacy Asset Management in Houston, suggests putting at least 7% of your gross pay into such an account to match your contribution to Social Security and Medicare.
• Use automatic deposits from your check or bank into your IRA. That way, you don't have to put in the effort of manually depositing funds and won't be tempted to use them toward another purchase.
• Put yourself in their shoes. Find it hard to justify saving money for something so far off in the future? Imagine yourself as a retiree and how it will affect your family and lifestyle. Birkofer suggests thinking about how your grandma, great-uncle or local retirees pay for lunch.
"There's only three places to get money besides stealing it or winning the lottery: the government, whatever you did yourself or from your family and your kids," he says.
If you don't want to rely on Social Security's shaky outlook or the unattractive option of burdening your family, being financially independent through your golden years can only come from the initiatives you take now.
• Don't get burned. When choosing a fund, make sure to balance risk.
Some want to chase higher returns with riskier funds, but starting out slow might make more sense -- especially for those who are hesitant to start saving in the first place.
Birkofer suggests young investors build up a core of $15,000 to $20,000 in a balanced retirement fund, then start exploring funds that are weighted in international or emerging-market investments.
"We lost almost a generation of investors because of the dot-com bomb and it's taken them years to come back to the market," he notes.
Legend has it that Albert Einstein once called compounding interest the most powerful force in the universe. Unfortunately, that concept has escaped many of those who would benefit most from it: the 20-somethings who have entered the work force but aren't saving up for retirement.
While it can be hard to justify saving for something that will occur decades into the future, financial advisors say its importance can't be understated.
One reason is that Social Security is far from guaranteed: Without reform, the program will not be able to pay out benefits at current levels, starting in 2041. People who are 22 years old now would typically still have at least 10 years to go until retirement at that point.
Another reason is that compounding interest makes saving early far more profitable than starting late.
As an example, Vincent Barbera, director of financial planning at TGS Financial Advisors, offers two different scenarios: Person X deposits $2,000 into an IRA each year from the ages of 22 to 31, then stops, while Person Y deposits $2,000 each year from the ages of 31 to 65. Both have the same interest rate and allow interest to accrue. Person X will earn nearly $50,000 more than Person Y by age 65, even though the latter contributed $50,000 more to the account over 25 additional years.
With that in mind, here are five helpful tips for 20-somethings who want to start preparing for the future:
• Put "surprise" cash into an IRA. Instead of spending that $100 birthday present or $600 rebate check, pretend you never received the money and stick it into your retirement savings account.
• If your company offers a 401K plan, enroll -- even if you put the minimum amount that will be matched. If not, start contributing to your own individual account.
Joseph Birkofer, a financial planner at Legacy Asset Management in Houston, suggests putting at least 7% of your gross pay into such an account to match your contribution to Social Security and Medicare.
• Use automatic deposits from your check or bank into your IRA. That way, you don't have to put in the effort of manually depositing funds and won't be tempted to use them toward another purchase.
• Put yourself in their shoes. Find it hard to justify saving money for something so far off in the future? Imagine yourself as a retiree and how it will affect your family and lifestyle. Birkofer suggests thinking about how your grandma, great-uncle or local retirees pay for lunch.
"There's only three places to get money besides stealing it or winning the lottery: the government, whatever you did yourself or from your family and your kids," he says.
If you don't want to rely on Social Security's shaky outlook or the unattractive option of burdening your family, being financially independent through your golden years can only come from the initiatives you take now.
• Don't get burned. When choosing a fund, make sure to balance risk.
Some want to chase higher returns with riskier funds, but starting out slow might make more sense -- especially for those who are hesitant to start saving in the first place.
Birkofer suggests young investors build up a core of $15,000 to $20,000 in a balanced retirement fund, then start exploring funds that are weighted in international or emerging-market investments.
"We lost almost a generation of investors because of the dot-com bomb and it's taken them years to come back to the market," he notes.
2008年3月23日 星期日
Some Suggestions for Ma Ying-Jeou
By Bruce Jacobs 家博
'If Ma pushes a Taiwan-centric, reformist agenda, the people of Taiwan will unite behind him. If, on the other hand, he is weak toward China and relies on Beijing's good will, the future of Taiwan will be bleak.'
Chinese Nationalist Party presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou's (馬英九) landslide victory confirms Taiwan's democracy is thriving. Many citizens who voted for President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) in 2000 and 2004 blamed Chen and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) for the perceived failures of the past eight years. Thus, they quite rationally decided to vote for Ma. In many ways, this voter dissatisfaction with the DPP government continues the trends shown in the legislative election two months ago.
Ma must realize that his massive victory does not come from his cross-strait policies such as the "cross-strait common market." In fact, the most successful part of DPP candidate Frank Hsieh's (謝長廷) campaign was his dismantling of vice-presidential candidate Vincent Siew's (蕭萬長) "cross-strait common market" idea, a fact Ma realized as he repeatedly retreated on the common market policy. Tibet also showed the naivete of Ma's cross-strait policy.
Rather, Ma's victory was a defeat for the DPP's economic policies and for its perceived corruption. Ma must bear this in mind as he goes forward.
Ma faces some difficult decisions ahead of his inauguration date on May 20. His most difficult heritage is his reputation for making contradictory statements at different times. For example, when running for re-election as mayor of Taipei in 2002, he told me personally and then said in a major press conference that Taiwan's future should be decided by the 23 million people of Taiwan. Recently, he reiterated this stance. Yet, on Feb. 12, 2006, and at other times, he said the future of Taiwan should be decided by the peoples on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
Ma has also emphasized the threats posed by China and has even declared that the withdrawal of China's missiles is a precondition for cross-strait talks. Yet, at other times, he has expressed the opinion that if Taiwan is friendly to China, Beijing will in turn demonstrate friendship for Taiwan and give Taiwan more international space.
Clearly, China's repeated repression in Tibet, including the recent crackdown, has made a mockery of its original 1951 Treaty of Amity with Tibet. This clearly has lessons for Taiwan.
The KMT that Ma leads is very divided. On one hand there are the old, China-centric conservatives, many of whom go back to the dictatorial period. On the other hand, there are the more Taiwan-centric reformers. Ma is a bridge between these groups and frequently leaves both unhappy. Thus, the old conservatives refused to accept Ma's suggestion that the KMT publicly accept defeat in 2004 and they criticized him when he sold the old KMT party headquarters and old party-run enterprises.
So far, he has also proved insufficiently reformist for the younger members of the KMT. Bringing People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) back into the KMT is not a reform move. Neither is giving prominence to former vice president and KMT chairman Lien Chan (連戰). And putting such recent criminals as KMT Legislator Chiu Yi (邱毅) high on the party ticket for the legislature does not send a reform message either
I recommend to Ma that he ally with the reformers in the KMT. Thus, for example, he should not appoint KMT Vice Chairman Chiang Pin-kun (江丙坤), a former minister of economic affairs, as premier. Chiang, who is already 75 years old, lacks a reformist spirit. As deputy speaker of the legislature, he had a military honor guard snap to attention every time he or his guests entered his chambers. Such behavior belongs in a dictatorship, not a democracy. In addition, Chiang lacks any notion of reform or of a global world.
Rather, Ma should appoint a younger Taiwan-centric, reformist administrator as premier. One such person would be Taoyuan County Commissioner Chu Li-lun (朱立倫), who has led a large county and implemented a reformist strategy. Chu speaks excellent English, has traveled widely and would present an excellent face for Taiwan to the world. In addition, domestically he would push reform in Taiwan's bureaucratic administrative system. Provided he is healthy, Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) might be another possible premier.
In the KMT itself, Ma must also push reform. For example, he must implement separation of the party and government. Thus, the president and Cabinet ministers should not be members of the KMT's Central Standing Committee. Such reforms are essential to reforming the KMT and turning it into a genuine democratic party.
Ma should remember his statement in the second TV debate, when he said he regretted that the KMT in its eight years in opposition had failed to reform. This statement was never followed up in the campaign, but he should also make party reform a matter of priority.
If Ma pushes a Taiwan-centric, reformist agenda, the people of Taiwan will unite behind him. If, on the other hand, he is weak toward China and relies on Beijing's goodwill, the future of Taiwan will be bleak. Only with a genuinely reformist agenda can Ma fulfill his major campaign slogan of "going forward."
Bruce Jacobs is professor of Asian languages and studies and director of the Taiwan Research Unit at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia.
'If Ma pushes a Taiwan-centric, reformist agenda, the people of Taiwan will unite behind him. If, on the other hand, he is weak toward China and relies on Beijing's good will, the future of Taiwan will be bleak.'
Chinese Nationalist Party presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou's (馬英九) landslide victory confirms Taiwan's democracy is thriving. Many citizens who voted for President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) in 2000 and 2004 blamed Chen and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) for the perceived failures of the past eight years. Thus, they quite rationally decided to vote for Ma. In many ways, this voter dissatisfaction with the DPP government continues the trends shown in the legislative election two months ago.
Ma must realize that his massive victory does not come from his cross-strait policies such as the "cross-strait common market." In fact, the most successful part of DPP candidate Frank Hsieh's (謝長廷) campaign was his dismantling of vice-presidential candidate Vincent Siew's (蕭萬長) "cross-strait common market" idea, a fact Ma realized as he repeatedly retreated on the common market policy. Tibet also showed the naivete of Ma's cross-strait policy.
Rather, Ma's victory was a defeat for the DPP's economic policies and for its perceived corruption. Ma must bear this in mind as he goes forward.
Ma faces some difficult decisions ahead of his inauguration date on May 20. His most difficult heritage is his reputation for making contradictory statements at different times. For example, when running for re-election as mayor of Taipei in 2002, he told me personally and then said in a major press conference that Taiwan's future should be decided by the 23 million people of Taiwan. Recently, he reiterated this stance. Yet, on Feb. 12, 2006, and at other times, he said the future of Taiwan should be decided by the peoples on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
Ma has also emphasized the threats posed by China and has even declared that the withdrawal of China's missiles is a precondition for cross-strait talks. Yet, at other times, he has expressed the opinion that if Taiwan is friendly to China, Beijing will in turn demonstrate friendship for Taiwan and give Taiwan more international space.
Clearly, China's repeated repression in Tibet, including the recent crackdown, has made a mockery of its original 1951 Treaty of Amity with Tibet. This clearly has lessons for Taiwan.
The KMT that Ma leads is very divided. On one hand there are the old, China-centric conservatives, many of whom go back to the dictatorial period. On the other hand, there are the more Taiwan-centric reformers. Ma is a bridge between these groups and frequently leaves both unhappy. Thus, the old conservatives refused to accept Ma's suggestion that the KMT publicly accept defeat in 2004 and they criticized him when he sold the old KMT party headquarters and old party-run enterprises.
So far, he has also proved insufficiently reformist for the younger members of the KMT. Bringing People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) back into the KMT is not a reform move. Neither is giving prominence to former vice president and KMT chairman Lien Chan (連戰). And putting such recent criminals as KMT Legislator Chiu Yi (邱毅) high on the party ticket for the legislature does not send a reform message either
I recommend to Ma that he ally with the reformers in the KMT. Thus, for example, he should not appoint KMT Vice Chairman Chiang Pin-kun (江丙坤), a former minister of economic affairs, as premier. Chiang, who is already 75 years old, lacks a reformist spirit. As deputy speaker of the legislature, he had a military honor guard snap to attention every time he or his guests entered his chambers. Such behavior belongs in a dictatorship, not a democracy. In addition, Chiang lacks any notion of reform or of a global world.
Rather, Ma should appoint a younger Taiwan-centric, reformist administrator as premier. One such person would be Taoyuan County Commissioner Chu Li-lun (朱立倫), who has led a large county and implemented a reformist strategy. Chu speaks excellent English, has traveled widely and would present an excellent face for Taiwan to the world. In addition, domestically he would push reform in Taiwan's bureaucratic administrative system. Provided he is healthy, Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) might be another possible premier.
In the KMT itself, Ma must also push reform. For example, he must implement separation of the party and government. Thus, the president and Cabinet ministers should not be members of the KMT's Central Standing Committee. Such reforms are essential to reforming the KMT and turning it into a genuine democratic party.
Ma should remember his statement in the second TV debate, when he said he regretted that the KMT in its eight years in opposition had failed to reform. This statement was never followed up in the campaign, but he should also make party reform a matter of priority.
If Ma pushes a Taiwan-centric, reformist agenda, the people of Taiwan will unite behind him. If, on the other hand, he is weak toward China and relies on Beijing's goodwill, the future of Taiwan will be bleak. Only with a genuinely reformist agenda can Ma fulfill his major campaign slogan of "going forward."
Bruce Jacobs is professor of Asian languages and studies and director of the Taiwan Research Unit at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia.
2008年3月20日 星期四
The West and Beijing Must Share Shame Over the Tibet Crisis
By Simon Tisdall, of The Guardian, London.
Western governments have focused too much on Beijing's economic clout and not enough on its illegitimacy, which helps to explain their meek responses
China's anger and embarrassment over the Tibet protests is keenly felt and will not be easily assuaged. Its sense of betrayal is as striking as its inability to comprehend the cause of it. But Beijing's shame is widely shared. The unrest has confronted Western governments with inconvenient truths for which they plainly have no answers.
In the short term the hosts of the Beijing Olympics know they must act cautiously as the world watches, its running shoes in hand. Having been forced belatedly to acknowledge the scale of the trouble, Beijing cannot afford an even wider, more brutal public crackdown, its instinctive reaction to similar situations in the past.
State retaliation in the weeks and months ahead is likely to be stealthy and silent. For those who dared to make a stand, vengeance will come by night, in an unmarked car or an unheralded knock on the door.
This is typically how China deals with dissent, as Hu Jia (胡佳), a prominent human rights activist who went on trial for subversion on Tuesday, could testify.
Yet in blaming the Dalai Lama and his "clique" for organizing a conspiracy of sabotage, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (溫家寶) missed the mark. Tibet's exiled spiritual leader has long promoted an autonomous accommodation with, not independence from, China. It is younger generations of Tibetans, inside and outside the country, who increasingly call the shots and pursue more robust tactics.
An editorial in the Communist Party mouthpiece the Tibet Daily appeared to acknowledge this shift -- while revealing the true extent of Chinese fury.
`LAWLESS ELEMENTS'
"These lawless elements have insulted, beaten, and wounded duty personnel, shouted reactionary slogans, stormed vital departments, and gone to all lengths in beating, smashing, looting, and burning," it said. "Their atrocities are appalling and too horrible to look at and their frenzy is inhuman. Their atrocities of various kinds teach and alert us to the fact that this is a life-and-death struggle between the enemy and ourselves."
This official "us versus them" view implies there will be no quick end to the disturbances or the retaliation. Horrific photographs of 13 people allegedly killed at Kirtii monastery in Aba (Ngawa) town, Sichuan Province, by Chinese security forces and released on Tuesday by the Free Tibet campaign will meanwhile stoke opposition fires.
The next flashpoint could be Beijing's plan to relay the Olympic torch through Lhasa and other ethnic Tibetan areas on its journey from Greece to Beijing.
Another so-called Chinese "renegade province," Taiwan, has already refused to take part. Tibet was not given a choice.
The broader prospect now, unnerving for a Chinese leadership that has staked so much on a showpiece, self-validating Games, is of trouble continuing right through until August.
This is a worrying prospect for Western leaders, too. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has said that he will meet the Dalai Lama when he visits Britain in May. If so, it will enrage Beijing, even more than German Chancellor Angela Merkel's recent meeting with the Tibetan leader.
All Brown's commercial and business networking during his China trip earlier this year could be undone.
Earlier, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband tied himself up in knots when asked about a possible meeting, refusing to say whether the government would welcome it while insisting that the issue would be dealt with "in a very straightforward and appropriate way." It's a safe bet that London hopes the Dalai Lama won't come after all.
Brown's decision to attend the Olympics opening ceremony, not normally an essential requirement despite the expected presence of US President George W. Bush, is also beginning to look like a big potential embarrassment. Steven Spielberg and Mia Farrow, attacking China over Darfur, triggered the first round of pre-Olympic, anti-Beijing media frenzy.
ROUND TWO
Tibet is round two. There are more bouts, and many more similar issues, in the pipeline, waiting to trip up an accident-prone prime minister.
European Parliament President Hans-Gert Pottering on Tuesday urged politicians to reconsider going to Beijing if violence and repression in Tibet continued. Such calls are likely to become more voluble.
Nearly all Western governments have found themselves in the same leaky boat this week, calling meekly for more information, restraint and dialogue in Tibet and knowing their advice will be ignored. All insist that a boycott of the Games is not contemplated. All worry too much about the Chinese government's economic power and not enough about its basic political illegitimacy.
All now face a growing body of international and domestic public opinion that is increasingly questioning what has been dubbed their pre-Olympics "three monkeys policy." See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil could have worked in 1904, when a power-grabbing British expeditionary force butchered thousands of Tibetans without a second thought.
But in the present-day interconnected, globalized world that Brown and Miliband talk about and China perforce inhabits, that dog won't hunt.
Western governments have focused too much on Beijing's economic clout and not enough on its illegitimacy, which helps to explain their meek responses
China's anger and embarrassment over the Tibet protests is keenly felt and will not be easily assuaged. Its sense of betrayal is as striking as its inability to comprehend the cause of it. But Beijing's shame is widely shared. The unrest has confronted Western governments with inconvenient truths for which they plainly have no answers.
In the short term the hosts of the Beijing Olympics know they must act cautiously as the world watches, its running shoes in hand. Having been forced belatedly to acknowledge the scale of the trouble, Beijing cannot afford an even wider, more brutal public crackdown, its instinctive reaction to similar situations in the past.
State retaliation in the weeks and months ahead is likely to be stealthy and silent. For those who dared to make a stand, vengeance will come by night, in an unmarked car or an unheralded knock on the door.
This is typically how China deals with dissent, as Hu Jia (胡佳), a prominent human rights activist who went on trial for subversion on Tuesday, could testify.
Yet in blaming the Dalai Lama and his "clique" for organizing a conspiracy of sabotage, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (溫家寶) missed the mark. Tibet's exiled spiritual leader has long promoted an autonomous accommodation with, not independence from, China. It is younger generations of Tibetans, inside and outside the country, who increasingly call the shots and pursue more robust tactics.
An editorial in the Communist Party mouthpiece the Tibet Daily appeared to acknowledge this shift -- while revealing the true extent of Chinese fury.
`LAWLESS ELEMENTS'
"These lawless elements have insulted, beaten, and wounded duty personnel, shouted reactionary slogans, stormed vital departments, and gone to all lengths in beating, smashing, looting, and burning," it said. "Their atrocities are appalling and too horrible to look at and their frenzy is inhuman. Their atrocities of various kinds teach and alert us to the fact that this is a life-and-death struggle between the enemy and ourselves."
This official "us versus them" view implies there will be no quick end to the disturbances or the retaliation. Horrific photographs of 13 people allegedly killed at Kirtii monastery in Aba (Ngawa) town, Sichuan Province, by Chinese security forces and released on Tuesday by the Free Tibet campaign will meanwhile stoke opposition fires.
The next flashpoint could be Beijing's plan to relay the Olympic torch through Lhasa and other ethnic Tibetan areas on its journey from Greece to Beijing.
Another so-called Chinese "renegade province," Taiwan, has already refused to take part. Tibet was not given a choice.
The broader prospect now, unnerving for a Chinese leadership that has staked so much on a showpiece, self-validating Games, is of trouble continuing right through until August.
This is a worrying prospect for Western leaders, too. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has said that he will meet the Dalai Lama when he visits Britain in May. If so, it will enrage Beijing, even more than German Chancellor Angela Merkel's recent meeting with the Tibetan leader.
All Brown's commercial and business networking during his China trip earlier this year could be undone.
Earlier, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband tied himself up in knots when asked about a possible meeting, refusing to say whether the government would welcome it while insisting that the issue would be dealt with "in a very straightforward and appropriate way." It's a safe bet that London hopes the Dalai Lama won't come after all.
Brown's decision to attend the Olympics opening ceremony, not normally an essential requirement despite the expected presence of US President George W. Bush, is also beginning to look like a big potential embarrassment. Steven Spielberg and Mia Farrow, attacking China over Darfur, triggered the first round of pre-Olympic, anti-Beijing media frenzy.
ROUND TWO
Tibet is round two. There are more bouts, and many more similar issues, in the pipeline, waiting to trip up an accident-prone prime minister.
European Parliament President Hans-Gert Pottering on Tuesday urged politicians to reconsider going to Beijing if violence and repression in Tibet continued. Such calls are likely to become more voluble.
Nearly all Western governments have found themselves in the same leaky boat this week, calling meekly for more information, restraint and dialogue in Tibet and knowing their advice will be ignored. All insist that a boycott of the Games is not contemplated. All worry too much about the Chinese government's economic power and not enough about its basic political illegitimacy.
All now face a growing body of international and domestic public opinion that is increasingly questioning what has been dubbed their pre-Olympics "three monkeys policy." See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil could have worked in 1904, when a power-grabbing British expeditionary force butchered thousands of Tibetans without a second thought.
But in the present-day interconnected, globalized world that Brown and Miliband talk about and China perforce inhabits, that dog won't hunt.
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