Freedom Must Win on March 22

By Li Thian-hok 李天福

On March 22, the Taiwanese should vote for freedom, not servitude. Vote for hope, do not stay away in despair.

Taiwan's presidential race pitting the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) against Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has been sharply negative.

With less than one month to voting day on March 22 there has been no substantive debate on the real issues challenging Taiwan's survival as a de facto independent country. What is at stake in the upcoming presidential election is no less than Taiwan's sovereignty and democracy.

The KMT now controls three-quarters of the Legislative Yuan, giving the party virtually unrestrained power to pass any laws it chooses. If Ma is elected president, he will control the Executive Yuan as well, thus giving the KMT the authority to adopt policies that will deliver Taiwan irretrievably into China's grasp.

On March 22, 2006, Ma gave a speech at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a prestigious think tank in Washington. He promised then that if elected, he would negotiate a peace accord with Beijing right away. The prerequisite is, of course, that the Taiwanese government accepts China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan.

Yet a great majority of the Taiwanese people reject Beijing rule.

This is evident in the popular support for President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) proposed referendum to apply for UN membership under the name "Taiwan." Nevertheless such a referendum is useful in demonstrating the people's desire for an independent, democratic state, which is recognized as a full and equal member of the international community.

Before such a goal can be realized, however, the Taiwanese people must build the foundation of a viable nation including the following six elements: strong national defense, a self-reliant economy, deft diplomacy, a consensus on national identity, a new constitution and finally, when the time is ripe, a formal declaration of independence.

The first four elements are interrelated and must be achieved before the last two steps become feasible.

To bolster national defense, the defense budget should be increased from 2.85 percent of GDP to 5 percent in two years. Israel enjoys military superiority over its Arab neighbors and strong support from the US. Its defense budget is 9.6 percent of GDP. The conscript's service should be lengthened to 18 months. Modern warfare requires longer training periods to master high-tech weapons and joint force operations. Readiness needs to be improved, for example, by stocking at least one month of strategic oil reserve, ammunition and other war materiel. A civil defense system should be established so as to avoid panic and reduce casualties.

To build a self-reliant economy, the Taiwanese government should encourage the return of businesses from China and diversification into other countries, such as Vietnam. Taiwanese investment in China as a percentage of GDP is about 90 times the equivalent figure for the US and Japan. It is excessive and detrimental to Taiwan's national and economic security.

Good relations with the US are vital to Taiwan's survival as a democratic state. There needs to be better high level communication between the two democratic allies and advanced consultation whenever Taipei decides to take any action which Beijing or Washington may perceive as provocative. After new presidents are in the White House and in Taipei, there could be a new beginning to restore mutual trust and to foster closer political and economic and cooperation. The report just published by the AEI and Armitage International Taiwan Policy Working Group contains many helpful proposals.

To build solid relations with the US, Taiwan must demonstrate by deeds that it is serious about national defense and that it loves freedom more than money.

With the pan-blue camp's super majority in the Legislative Yuan, the agenda proposed above may seem beyond reach. This is where national unity based on allegiance to Taiwan becomes relevant. Except for the old guard elements of the pan-blue parties, a great majority of the public identifies with Taiwan. They also prefer democracy and reject autocracy.

The pan-blue minority that pledges allegiance to China and opposes Taiwanese independence actually works against the welfare of the 1.3 billion Chinese people. China is at a crossroads in history. It is pursuing military aggrandizement and territorial expansion, heading ultimately toward conflict with the US, Japan and the Western democracies. Taiwan's capitulation will accelerate China's confrontation with the West.

Alternatively, China can pursue peaceful development, diverting its vast military expenditures to alleviate poverty, improve the badly degraded environment and provide a social safety net for the masses.

China can embark on political reform, by allowing political opposition, a free press and religious freedom and try to end the endemic official corruption. By becoming a responsible stakeholder in the global community, China can earn respect as a great and humane power. Taiwan can help steer China in this direction by serving as a beacon of freedom to the Chinese people.

Hsieh must address the critical issue of how to maintain Taiwan's fragile "status quo" by outlining a concrete agenda. Only by offering his green base and middle-of-the-road voters a vision of Taiwan's future that is firmly anchored in irreconcilable freedom can Hsieh hope to win the presidency. Time is short. Let us hope Hsieh has managed to convey a sense of crisis to voters and make them understand that the choice is between life with freedom and dignity or servitude under the repressive rule of the Chinese Communist Party in the near future.

Regarding Taiwan's future, Ma asserts that the choice between independence and unification is a false issue. He appears to believe his three noes policy -- no independence, no unification and no war -- will maintain the "status quo" indefinitely.

This is a deceptive slogan.

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is already capable of launching a multi-pronged assault on Taiwan and occupying the island in a short time, absent US intervention. Beijing has declared that China will resort to nonpeaceful means to annex Taiwan if the island drags its feet in accepting China's terms of surrender. So Ma can guarantee no war only if he is ready to accept unification.

Ma has deeply ingrained anti-democratic instincts as a result of his KMT upbringing.

The 81-day red shirt protest in the fall of 2006 was an attempt to unseat President Chen Shui-bian through the extralegal means of unruly, massive street demonstrations. As mayor of Taipei, Ma not only fanned the flames of the protests, he said at the height of the crisis: "If Chen doesn't resign, he will die an ugly death. The bullet is in the chamber. The gun is cocked. The next step is to pull the trigger."

If Ma wins the presidency, the KMT could install a Singapore-type political system, that is, a one-party autocracy.

Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania.