2008年2月12日 星期二

Finding Identity Amidst the Baloney

By Jerome Keating

IF TAIWAN IS to establish its identity, it must begin with the principle that "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts."

From 5,000 years ago, when thriving Aboriginal civilizations quarried jade and did a burgeoning sea-faring trade with Southeast Asia, Taiwan has had its uniqueness. It was later influenced by the Dutch, the Spanish, pirates, Ming loyalists, Qing conquerors, and the Hoklo and Hakka seeking freedom. You name it and Taiwan received it. Each contributed a part, but the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

In the past century, Taiwan had two great colonizers that wanted to make the island conform to their identity. The Japanese -- the first to control the whole island -- imposed their rule and their language and tried to mold Taiwan into a model colony. After Japan, the fleeing Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) came and imposed their rule and their language; they promoted a different dream, the false dream of retaking what the KMT had lost.

The Japanese were a majority imposing their identity on the minority Taiwanese. The KMT were a minority imposing their identity on the majority Taiwanese. Both have been a part of Taiwan's past, but the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

Democracy has given Taiwan new life. With democracy, Taiwan now has the freedom to declare its own dream. While some deep blue KMT still want to impose their identity and their lost dream on Taiwan, others in their ranks are beginning to recognize the importance of localization and consider changing the KMT party name to "Taiwanese Nationalist Party." The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

Identity is not enough for progress however. The second step after identity is to get past the media bamboozlement and down to the issues.

Henry David Thoreau stated succinctly in Walden: "Most men lead lives of quiet desperation." I would add a corollary to his words: "Most men lead lives of willingly being bamboozled."

This flaw in humanity is what drives companies to hire marketing executives to persuade consumers to buy stuff they don't need. This flaw is what allows the media to get away with providing pap instead of substance. This flaw is what allows politicians to posture and promise and not worry about being held accountable.

Why do people allow themselves to be bamboozled? Perhaps they hope for quick-fix solutions and trust a person's words more than his record. Perhaps they don't want to look beyond the immediacy of a problem to the complexities of its source. Perhaps they would rather trust a media that is interested more in sensationalism than investigative journalism.

Taiwan must insist the media get beyond its pap and sensationalism. Look at what the media focused on before the elections. Taiwan had to endure media overplay of Shih Ming-deh's (施明德) Red Shirts. Their alleged million people protest march was in reality about 500,000 pan-blue members from their Taipei City and County stronghold, an area that holds a KMT voter base of well over 3 million loyalists.

March of the people? March of the KMT loyalists is more like it.

Then the Red Shirts who claimed to be anti-corruption avoided any accurate and specific accounting of the more than US$3 million that Shih's group collected and which disappeared in less than a year with no concrete detailed accounting.

Bamboozled again.

The reality that the media and many in Taiwan do not acknowledge is that Taiwan has inherited governmental systems that foster and condone corruption. These systems are inherited from the one-party state martial law days where all officials could have a share of profits from assigned discretionary funds according to their rank. Thus in true Ambrose Bierce style, corruption becomes defined as accusing others for imitating what you do best. And the media and people, rather than begin the tedious effort of reforming these systems, seek the easy way out. They look for simple scapegoats when it is the system that must be attacked.

Taiwanese can begin by asking who is for Taiwan and who is not and how that loyalty is to be defined. If loyalty to Taiwan means accepting that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, then no politician should favor any other country more than Taiwan no matter how close that country is.

With this loyalty established, people can get to the nitty-gritty of what systems in the country need reform in order to improve Taiwan on all fronts from its democracy to its economy.

The power of Taiwan is in the Legislative Yuan and not the president. It is the past sixth Legislative Yuan that paralyzed the country by continuously refusing its military budget without discussion, by refusing to appoint members to the Control Yuan, the watchdog of the country, by passing the least amount of bills in the legislature's history and by blocking any motions that the KMT should give up its stolen assets.

Did the media focus on this reality? Not on your life -- they let the legislature and its small controlling pan-blue majority get away with it even when it sought to usurp the powers belonging to the executive branch.

The bamboozling has continued with the economy. Everyone complained, yet no one bothered to notice that Taiwan's economy has been better than most countries of the world and its unemployment rate is one of the lowest.

If you walk down Taipei's Zhongxiao E Road, the shoppers are out in full force; entertainment and spending are alive and well in Taiwan. Yet because people are not instant millionaires, they believe the media hype and never check reality.

Are the foreign media any help? The economies of the countries where the foreign media reside are worse off than Taiwan, yet the foreign media would rather report sensationalism over substance in Taiwan than compare it to their own economy.

Bamboozled again, both locally and internationally.

So now when the KMT won an overwhelming and disproportionate victory in last month's Legislative Yuan elections, the KMT members all had somber faces. Some interpreted this as a sham to hide their gloating over how they had bamboozled the public; how with as little as slightly over 50 percent of the vote, they managed to gain more than 75 percent of the seats in the Legislative Yuan.

My own take on it is that by gaining such an overwhelming majority the KMT has now realized that they can no longer hide. They can't blame a slim legislative majority for being unable to pass legislation. They likewise can no longer blame the president; they can no longer blame the economy. There will be no one to blame except themselves and no amount of bamboozling can save them.

One final bamboozle remains, the personal and often pork barrel bamboozle. This bamboozle is self-inflicted, either consciously or unconsciously. There were approximately 17.3 million eligible voters, but only 9.8 million cast votes. While this is not a disreputable percentage by some standards, it still meant that some 7.5 million people did not vote. That total is many more votes than the KMT received (5,010,801) and almost twice as many as the DPP got (3,610,106). As a matter of fact, the number of non-voters combined with independents slightly exceeds the combined total number of votes received by the KMT and DPP.

The actual voting numbers for the KMT and DPP have not changed that much from 2004 with the exception that the KMT consolidated all the pan-blue votes under one roof. These voters followed their traditional patterns. They favored either their ideology or their pork barrel benefits or both. Because of this, both parties need to ask why they did not provide convincing reasons to attract more of the 7.5 million non-voters.

The ultimate question, however, falls on the non-voters. One can sympathize that for many non-voters the senseless bickering in the Legislative Yuan would make anyone want to say "a pox on both of your houses" and not vote.

Likewise, under the old system of one vote, multiple-member districts, little accountability could be leveraged against foolish legislators. However, the Legislative Yuan is the law-making body of the land, and with the new single member districts, voters can now enforce accountability. Non-voters can no longer bamboozle themselves.

No country has 100 percent turnout of voters; but even an 80 percent voter turnout would have provided an extra 4 million votes. Certainly this would easily have tipped the scales for the DPP.

Perhaps if mobilized behind a third party it could have pro-vided a true reckoning force to make all sides work for justice, jobs and what is best for Taiwan. Is this a dream? If these voters continue to refrain from voting they are accepting their own bamboozle and refusing their identity.

Jerome Keating is a writer based in Taiwan.

Want to Get Rich? Be (Moderately) Happy

By Laura Rowley of Money & Happiness

Some people believe that earning the most money will make them incredibly happy. What they probably don't know is that being incredibly happy may not earn them the most money.

A new study finds that when it comes to financial success, you're better off being a moderately happy person rather than someone who's chronically ecstatic.

Mild Is Beautiful

Researchers at the University of Virginia, the University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign, and Michigan State analyzed several sets of data in a paper recently published in Perspectives on Psychological Science. Their conclusion: Mildly happy people -- those who rank themselves a 7 or 8 on a life-satisfaction scale of 1 to 10 -- achieve more than the blissful 10s.

"The people in our study who are most successful in terms of income, education, and career are mildly happy most of the time," said Ed Diener, a psychology professor at the University of Illinois.

Numerous studies have found that happy people enjoy an advantage over malcontents: Cheerful people earn more, enjoy better health, have closer relationships, and live longer, among other benefits. But in this case, researchers wanted to explore how happy you need to be to get those perks. Do the 10s enjoy the highest well-being in all areas of life?

Emotional Rescue

The answer is no -- and there may actually be a downside to scoring at the top of the scale. In a survey of more than 100,000 people in 96 countries, for example, the 8s on the 1-to-10 scale perform best in the realm of achievement.

Diener surmises that the 8s benefit from the creativity and energy of happiness, which help them stay committed in the pursuit of long-term goals and overcome obstacles along the way. But the 8s also maintain a touch of worry, stress, or internal dissatisfaction that motivates them to strive for more.

"Emotions steer our behavior, and they are there for a reason -- to help us function better," says Diener.

Swiss psychologist Norbert Semmer, for example, studied people who were dissatisfied with their work, following them over a period of time. Not surprisingly, these workers were more likely to quit their jobs and find a new situation. While a few people were simply chronic complainers, many of those studied were happier in their new workplace. In other words, negative emotions played an important role in improving their circumstances.

Sociability Trumps Money

Among the studies reviewed, researchers analyzed a survey of college freshman in 1976, who were asked to rank their happiness. Twenty years later, a follow-up survey of the same people found that those who scored in the top 10 percent in well-being reported average salaries of $62,681, compared to $54,318 for the bottom 10 percent. But the next-to-happiest group was earning the most: $66,144. Analyses of long-running panel studies from Australia, Germany, and Britain produced similar results.

On the other hand, if you define success in terms of relationships, the joyful 10s are the clear winners. In a survey of current college students, the "very happy" group was more gregarious and ranked higher in self-confidence, energy, number of close friends, and time spent dating. (Those who ranked themselves merely "happy" had higher grade point averages, attended class more frequently, and were more conscientious.)

"The 10s are more sociable and positive, so people like them," says Diener, and the global survey demonstrated similar results. (I interviewed several millionaire entrepreneurs this week and they all ranked themselves 10s. Energy, confidence, and relationships may be the key. See my blog for that story.)

To Misremember Is Divine

The effusively happy tend to look at their relationships through rose-colored glasses. In a separate study of dating couples not included in this paper, Diener's research team randomly beeped participants while they were with their partners, and asked them to write down how happy they were. Then they surveyed them at a later time about their relationships.

Some participants reported being happier in retrospect than they had felt in their moment-to-moment account. "People who misremembered in a positive direction were more likely to be together six months later," Diener says.

In other words, the 10s tend to idealize their partners and look for the best in them, leading to more enduring and upbeat relationships. Alternately, the lack of satisfaction that drives the 8s to want more in their work lives might also prompt them to be more critical of their partners, to more readily see their faults -- and to be more willing to look around for something better.

A Positive Negative

But while relationships are better for the joyous, it turns out that there's a big deficit to perpetual euphoria: Super-happy people don't live as long as the moderately happy, according to a long-term study of gifted children. "We were shocked that the happiest people didn't live longer," says Diener.

He speculates that the most upbeat people may not take symptoms of illness seriously, or may follow a physician's recommendations in a halfhearted way. Or they may take foolish risks, such as the active 77-year-old Californian who went biking during a heat wave and later succumbed to heat stroke.

In addition, just as the physiological arousal associated with chronic stress takes a toll on health, so too can the sustained arousal of intense positive emotions, Diener suggests.

"People who chase continual emotional highs will usually fall short because the biological cards are stacked against their being able to sustain this emotional intensity," he writes in an upcoming book on well-being. "In the quest for continuing intense positive emotions, some individuals turn to drugs."

Pursue Happiness at Your Own Pace

The upshot? If you feel generally satisfied with your life, your work, and your relationships most of the time, think twice before buying into the self-help movement and its search for a continuous streak of "peak moments."

"Happiness, like spirituality, is partially a private pursuit, defined by individuals based on their personal values," says Diener. "Be wary when people tell you to live for the moment, to strive for an exciting life, or that you ought to be happier. Chasing super-happiness is a mistake that can lead you astray and be self-defeating."

2008年2月11日 星期一

15 Money Moves for Tough Times

By Dana Dratch of Bankrate

While economists debate whether the country is in a recession, consumers are being buffeted by skyrocketing prices, growing debt, layoffs, the subprime lending squeeze and a stock market roller coaster.

While you may not be able to control the price of oil or the prime rate, there are some simple things you can do to shore up your finances, safeguard your future and ride out whatever the economy throws at you.

Here's a list of ideas that hopefully will help you get through any hard times, plus tips if the hard times have already hit your household.

Dealing with hard times

1. Eliminate the nonessentials
2. Start a go-to fund for emergencies
3. Consider cutting back (rather than cutting out) for some expenses
4. Safeguard your current job
5. Be on the lookout for your next job
6. Keep your debt load light
7. Barring a complete personal financial meltdown, continue funding your retirement
8. Swap extraneous spending for smart long-term moves
9. Investigate refinancing
10. Re-examine your insurance
11. Adjust your withholding allowance
12. Reward yourself
13. Ask for an extension on your car loan
14. Get an extension on the mortgage
15. Talk to a mortgage counselor

1. Eliminate the nonessentials. One way to avoid putting spending on automatic pilot: Write down everything you buy and the price. Then go through the list and "be brutal," says Nancy Register, associate director for the Consumer Federation of America.

Ric Edelman, Certified Financial Planner and author of "The Truth About Money," agrees.

"You need to make sure you're not spending any money that doesn't absolutely, positively need to be spent," he says. "A lot of people are spending money frivolously on wants they consider needs."

If you have kids, "It's a great time to explain wants versus needs," says Linda Sherry, director of national priorities for Consumer Action.

2. Start a go-to fund for emergencies. The average family will face up to $2,000 a year in unexpected bills, says Register. For families already stretching to pay the bills, those surprises can trigger long-term financial problems. While you can't plan what or when, you can have money set aside just in case.

"You need to really boost your cash reserves," says Edelman.

His recommendation? Aim for one year's living expenses in an assortment of liquid vehicles, like a bank account, money market account and short-term CDs.

One way to kick-start that fund: Shave off 10 percent of your take-home pay every time you get a check, says Gail Cunningham, spokeswoman for the National Foundation for Credit Counseling.

Keep it liquid and make saving automatic. Look for a money market account that pays the highest rate you can find, says Register. Want to make sure you're consistent? Arrange to have the money deposited electronically.

Deposit any "extra" money you receive, like that birthday check, bonus, tax refund or raise.

3. Consider cutting back (rather than cutting out) some expenses. Depending on your current situation and concerns, it might make more sense to just scale back.

"It's much more effective if people cut back rather than cut out," says Cunningham, "because it's the change in behavior that's so tough."

Examine services you're paying for and not fully using, like the cell phone plan with unlimited texting or the premium cable package. Are there less expensive options that would make you just as happy? Would bundling (buying several services from the same provider) save money?

Make it a family discussion, says Cunningham. "That way, everyone is pulling in the same direction."

4. Safeguard your current job. Remain engaged and enthusiastic, keep a high profile and network, network, network.

Make yourself visible "as someone who wants to be part of the team," says Martin Yate, executive employment coach and author of "Knock 'Em Dead 2008: The Ultimate Job Search Guide."

Three keys to making yourself invaluable: First, analyze how much you save or produce for the company. And don't be afraid to let higher-ups know what a key role you're playing in company success.

Second, stay current with the latest developments, continuing education and technology in your field.

Third, participate in at least one local professional organization. Not only will the connections help you in your current job, they can also make securing the next one much easier.

"It immediately gives you a relative, professional network for your search," says Yate.

5. Be on the lookout for your next job. Just like a corporation, you have to ensure your own financial survival, says Yate. If you believe that your company or job is in jeopardy, update that resume, reach out to your network, hit the job boards (anonymously) and ignite your job search.

6. Keep your debt load light. Use credit only if you are paying off balances in full every month. Otherwise, switch to cash, checks or debit cards, says Cunningham. "That way when the money's gone, the spending stops."

7. Barring a complete personal financial meltdown, continue funding your retirement. "Retirement is going to come," says Edelman. "You need to be ready for it."

8. Swap extraneous spending for smart long-term moves. You can live another month without a new DVD player, but servicing your car or home heating system could net you a nice savings through fuel efficiency and keep you from having to shell out for expensive repairs later.

9. Investigate refinancing. If your credit is good and you're planning to stay in your house for a few more years, refinancing could be a smart move.

Prime rate loans are the lowest they've been in two years, so investigate if a refinance could save you money every month, says Edelman.

Do the math and analyze what it could save you.

10. Re-examine your insurance. You don't want to be underinsured or overinsured. The key is to have enough to cover you at the best rate you can find. Shop your policies, set your deductibles at the highest amount that you can comfortably pay out of pocket and make sure you're getting credit for everything appropriate, like having car alarms, air bags and a good driving record, says Cunningham.

11. Adjust your withholding allowance. "The average refund is well over $2,000," says Cunningham. And most people "could use an extra $200 every month," she says.

The goal: Pay exactly what you owe. You can use the withholdings calculator at IRS.gov to determine what your withholding amounts should be. Then make the correction with your employer.

"You can do that at any time of year," says Cunningham.

12. Reward yourself. Hold out a little discretionary money that you can use for fun.

If you have an unexpected windfall, like a raise, bonus or tax refund, "Treat yourself with some small part and save the rest," says Cunningham.

Another trick for monthly family treats: At the end of the day everyone in the household puts their pocket change in a big jar. Says Cunningham, "At the end of the month, you'll have $20 or $30, and you'll never miss the money."

And if things get really bad...

13. Ask for an extension on your car loan. "Typically, they will do this once or twice a year," says Cunningham.

How it works: Instead of making your regular payment this month, the lender would tack an extra month onto the end of your loan period. But you won't get off with a zero payment this month, warns Cunningham. You still have to cover the interest.

14. Get an extension on the mortgage. Some home lenders will let you do something similar for your mortgage, says Cunningham. The downside is, while it will help you if you're trying to make up for a short-term problem, (like a large, unexpected bill), it's not effective if you've got a long-running situation, like regular medical bills, a resetting interest rate you can't handle or a long stretch of unemployment.

To work out such a deal, contact the loss mitigation unit in the mortgage department of the company servicing your loan, says Allen Fishbein, director of housing and credit policy for the Consumer Federation of America. Other typical department tags: home preservation or foreclosure avoidance.

15. Talk to a mortgage counselor. Just as you can get debt counseling help, you also can get mortgage counseling. What to look for: a nonprofit service with counselors who are HUD-certified.

They can examine your situation and offer some options like renegotiating your mortgage or getting a rate freeze on your loan that will help you keep your home. They can also negotiate with your lender on your behalf. You can search for counselors on the HUD Web site or call the Department of Housing and Urban Development at (800) 569-4287.

However, not all counselors can be trusted. "Beware of foreclosure rescue companies or organizations that bill themselves as counseling organizations" but are for-profit, says Fishbein.

There is actually some good news for homeowners as a result of the lending crisis, says Fishbein. If you're willing to be pretty candid about your situation, "there may be more options" available than you realize, he says. "Lenders are doing things they traditionally haven't done to keep people in their homes."

Beijing's Deadly Trade Policy

Diplomats, pundits and academics unanimously refer to the threat of an emerging Chinese military in terms of its capability to make war and more specifically to interdict the Taiwan Strait in the event of a military confrontation over Taiwan.

Worrying as this may be, the ongoing military buildup is not China's greatest threat to the international community -- but its amoral foreign business policy is.

Although partner countries welcome Beijing's policy of not interfering with their internal affairs and not making business conditional on respect for human rights, many fail to see that the practice will hurt international security in the long run. From Sudan to Myanmar, China's indifference to human rights violations in countries that provide it with natural resources has led to grave abuses and fed wars. In Sudan, violence now threatens to spill into neighboring countries and disrupt regional order.

Further indication of the nefarious effects of this policy is Beijing's "exploitation" -- as US Representative Joseph Lieberman put it at an international security conference over the weekend in Munich, Germany -- of the vacuum created by economic sanctions against Iran to further its business interests. While Germany makes the "principled decision to curtail its exports to Iran," Lieberman said, "the People's Republic of China exploits that decision for its own commercial advantage" by picking up business opportunities.

Beyond bad business practice, Beijing's behavior also undermines international efforts to prevent Tehran from successfully developing nuclear weapons. By weakening the effect of the sanctions, Beijing makes it likelier that states like Israel, which feels threatened by the specter of a nuclear Iran, will act preemptively and open a Pandora's Box of conflict in the Persian Gulf, with repercussions on a regional -- and global -- scale.

What makes the situation doubly ironic is that China is one of the handful of states involved in talks on strengthening sanctions against Iran.

History has shown that irresponsible leaders feel no compunction in selling weapons to states or groups that will likely turn them against their neighbors, their own people or against the very state that sold them the weapons.

This is where the nexus of China's military growth and its irresponsible business policies possibly creates the greatest threat. Led by their domestic military-industrial complex, modernizing military powers begin to produce their own weapons. After a certain period, the military-industrial complex reaches a point where it needs to export weapons to finance its growth and continue to meet the demands of government. There is no reason why China would not go down that path and, in time, become a major arms exporter.

Left unchecked, China's trade policy and lack of transparency in the arms trade will feed wars in countries all over the world -- especially in resource-rich regions in Southeast Asia and Africa -- that cannot afford to purchase Western weapons or, because of their conduct, are barred from doing so. Non-state groups like al-Qaeda, and conceivably Hezbollah, would also have better access to more modern and deadlier weapons made in China.

For the sake of fair trade, international security and the countless lives at stake, the world must unequivocally tell Beijing that powers worthy of respect must act responsibly in every sector.

Taipei Times Editorial, February 12, 2008

For the Love of Taiwan

By Samuel Yang of Bloomfield Hills, Michigan

Taiwan is a vibrant multi-ethnic country. Most people love its colorful divergent cultures of Aborigines, Hoklo, Hakka, Chinese, Japanese and even Westerners. Its people enjoy free speech under the newfound democracy.

Before World War II, Taiwan was a tranquil society with law and order. It was drastically changed by the arrival of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) regime after the the war.

Taiwanese were flabbergasted by the arrogant, inept and corrupt Chinese bureaucrats who stole public assets at will. Their disregard of law and the ethical code of civilized society alienated Taiwanese. Within two years, the infamous 228 Incident occurred.

To understand the political situation in Taiwan at that time, the reader could just imagine the probable reaction of US citizens if the current Chinese regime were installed in Washington.

If one cannot remember the unfortunate suffering of Taiwanese under the KMT regime, then one doesn't need to look very far. China under the rule of the corrupt Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is its carbon copy.

Despite being forced out of power in 2000, the KMT is still deeply entrenched in Taiwan and persists in controlling the legislative apparatus, judiciary system and local governments by utilizing massive amounts of stolen public assets, misleading propaganda and reckless boycotts against the democratically elected central government.

Moreover, the KMT has been openly collaborating with the CCP in a united-front campaign against Taiwan.

Amazingly, the leaders of developed nations and officials of the UN are also cooperating with China in suppressing the advancement of Taiwan democracy. Their actions contradict the UN Charter and openly trample the rights of 23 million Taiwanese.

Such open violations of human rights have been well documented by the global media using advanced information technology, and the records will never be erased from the history of mankind.

Facing the aforementioned difficulties, becoming a neutral nation with a direct democracy based on the Swiss model might be the best solution for ensuring the survival of Taiwan Democracy.

Similar to Taiwan, Switzerland is a relatively small country with divergent ethnicities and four official languages.

Although it is bordered by five nations, Switzerland's armed forces safeguard its neutrality, taking advantage of the high Alps with a strategy of long-term attrition to discourage potential military conflicts.

To emulate this type of neutral and democratic country, the KMT must show its genuine love for Taiwan by reforming itself, returning its well documented stolen public assets and allowing fair representation of all people at every governmental level.

It needs to abandon its short-sighted indulgence in one-party domination, which will invariably undermine democracy. It's necessary to work with other political parties to transform Taiwan into a mature democracy that will benefit all Taiwanese.

The leaders of the world community, including those of China, must abide by the UN Charter and support Taiwanese in their struggle to free themselves from the oppression of foreign powers.

In the court of civilized international opinion, the destiny of Taiwan should be decided by the people who truly love and identify themselves with Taiwan.

The neutral Taiwan would become the epicenter of harmonious Asian nations and would also function as a security buffer zone at a strategic location.

2008年2月4日 星期一

Why China is Afraid of Nobodies

By Guy Sorman

EVER SINCE THEIR reinvention by Pierre de Coubertin, the Olympic Games have been politicized. They first took place in 1896 in Athens in order to embarrass the Turks still occupying northern Greece. The Berlin Games in 1936 celebrated the triumph of Nazi ideology. The Seoul Games in 1988 opened the door to South Korea's democratization.

This summer's Olympic Games in Beijing will be no less political, but will they resemble those in Berlin or Seoul? Will they mark the apotheosis of an authoritarian regime or the beginning of its demise?

Many optimistic observers of China, often mollified by their close relations with the Communist regime, bet on a soft transition from despotism toward an open society, but recent events don't support such a benign interpretation. Since the beginning of this year, repression of human rights activists, lawyers and bloggers has been harsher than ever.

The exact number of democratic dissidents who have been incarcerated, or worse, is unknown. There is no way to account for unseen victims, or why some are condemned to death and shot. We don't know how many are sent without trial to "re-education centers." In the absence of reliable statistics, let us focus on two iconic figures of China's pro-democracy movement: Hu Jia (胡佳) and Chen Guancheng (陳光誠).

On Dec. 27, 20 armed police officers violently arrested Hu in front of his wife and their two-month-old baby, acting as if he could offer real resistance. But Hu is a diminutive young man of 34 who suffers from a severe liver ailment. Moreover, he is a committed believer in non-violence, an admirer of the Dalai Lama, a disciple of the Mahatma Gandhi and a sincere Buddhist.

Why is the mighty Chinese Communist Party (CCP) deploying all of its powers to kidnap -- no word better describes what happened -- such a puny enemy? The CCP accuses him of "subversion," but he broke no laws, does not head a counter-revolutionary army and was not on the verge of toppling the party.

Hu's political actions are much more modest than that. In 2000, he abandoned his studies at Beijing University when he learned that thousands of Henan peasants were dying from AIDS after having sold their blood to local traffickers. Since the beginning of this epidemic, his main activity has been the distribution of medicine and moral comfort in the doomed villages of Henan.

Hu's charitable work is not facilitated by the local authorities, who bear some responsibility in this epidemic; moreover, with non-governmental organizations being forbidden in China, Hu can act only by himself. Indeed, if he were to build any kind of organization to support his charity, he would be violating the law.

But the eye-opening tragedy of the Henan victims caused Hu to understand that it arose from the absence of human rights in China. So he started a Web site that acts as a chat room for Chinese academics sharing his concern. This Web site, now closed by the government, has also reported on the fate of Chen.

Chen, a blind peasant and self-taught lawyer, had protested in 2005 against the kidnapping of some 3,000 women in his hometown of Linyi. The women were sterilized or forced into having abortions in order to stabilize the population increase in the region. As this extreme violence violates Chinese law, Chen petitioned the central government -- the only legally recognized form of protest in China. When carrying his petition to Beijing, escorted by a tiny group of lawyers, Chen was accused of disrupting traffic on the city's clogged roads and condemned to four years in jail.

Why do such moderate actions, rooted in the Chinese moral tradition, provoke such dramatic repression? Hu and Chen clearly respect the law. They don't call for revolution. True enough, they talk to foreign journalists who report their actions; however, such contact is not illegal.

But the CCP is haunted by the Soviet precedent. No Chinese Andrei Sakharov or Alexander Solzhenitsyn will be allowed to tarnish the "success" of the party. The incarceration of Hu and Chen is a clear signal that no democratization process will start in China outside of the party's control.

When the Chinese leaders mention democracy in official declarations, they mean "organized" democracy, from the top down. Any attempt at democratization by civil society will thus be crushed in its infancy.

China is clearly not on the path toward a Western-style democracy and economic growth will not be a prelude to a free society so long as the party can prevent it. The regime's true ambition is to invent an alternative to Western democracy: an enlightened despotism under the tutelage of a meritocratic CCP. The Beijing Games are being designed to promote this alternative model.

How legitimate is this model? The party's 60 million members, nearly all males and city dwellers, would probably approve, as might the 200 million Chinese who share the profits of rapid economic growth. But what do 1 billion people living in utter poverty (300 million on less than US$1 a day) and deprived of any rights think of this enlightened despotism? No one knows, because they cannot express their wishes.

Perhaps Hu and Chen represent this silent billion more than the party does. That would explain why the party has crushed them -- and why any decent participant in this summer's Olympics should demand their immediate release.

Guy Sorman is a French philosopher, economist and author.