by Paul B. Farrell
Seven reasons a 'good' depression beats a new Great Depression
Yes, a depression. Spelled: D-e-p-r-e-s-s-i-o-n. Wake up America, recessions don't work any more. Why?
Get serious folks. We had a 30-month recession not long ago. Eight years later the market's still barely at its 2000 peak, a loser. Worse, we're back in a new recession. But Washington politicians are keeping it a secret, feeding us doctored feel-good statistics as legendary political historian Kevin Phillips wrote in "Numbers Racket: Why the Economy is Worse Than We Know."
So we blindly refuse to bite the bullet and stop our out-of-control spiral into collapse. America needs a big wake-up call ... and it's coming soon, whether you like it or not!
Last November we posted "17 reasons America needs a recession." Today it's far worse, and getting worse still.
Most economists predict it'll take till 2010 to burn off our excess housing inventory. RGE Monitor say Fannie and Freddie bailouts aren't working; they'll soon be "profoundly insolvent" and need to be "nationalized." Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has no long-term plans, he's a caretaker, plugging holes, anxious to get back to Wall Street's money machine, running out the clock till he turns over the catastrophe he enflamed to a new bunch of politicians and their armies of 42,000 greedy lobbyists.
Lessons learned? Zero. Why? Wall Street, Washington and Corporate America are a one-trick pony with one narrow-minded strategy: Economic g-r-o-w-t-h, bull markets, megabonuses. In good times they tout "free markets." But when greed bombs, these big babies throw free market "principles" under the "Reagan Revolution" bus as their lobbyists go whining to Congress for megabillion taxpayer bailouts and access at the Fed casino's discount window to siphon off more taxpayer money. What hypocritical wimps!
Wall Street and its co-conspirators are doing such a miserable job, America needs a new strategy: Stop all the short-term "hole-plugging." Let go and let an old-fashioned "Good Depression" do the job that our happy-talking leaders refuse to do. Let it clean house and reawaken America to basic values. Otherwise a "Good Depression" will turn into a new "Great Depression."
Here are seven strong reasons favoring this alternative strategy:
1. Yes, an Honest Diagnosis: Soul Sickness in American Capitalism
America's problems are not the economy, not markets, nor even politics. The endless bickering campaign is distracting us from facing our real long-term problems. Yes, our economic pains are real, but they're just symptoms. Since 2000, America has seen a relentless, sickening overdose of bad news: stupidity, deceit, corruption and even evil behavior. Americans are n-u-m-b, suffering post-traumatic shock syndrome.
The real problem is our thinking, our brains -- something deep in our cosmic soul, says Jack Bogle's "The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism." We lost our values, our moral compass.
2. Yes, Time to Admit This Really Is Like the 1930's Great Depression
Comparing today with the Great Depression has become common sport. In a Newsweek special "Seeing Shades of the 1930s," Daniel Gross writes: 75 years ago "Wall Street, after two terms of a business-friendly Republican president, self-immolated on a pyre of greed, incompetence and excessive optimism."
Like Dr. Scott Peck says in "The Road Less Traveled:" "Life is a series of problems. Do we want to moan about them or solve them?" We need to grow up, stop whining, roll our sleeves up and solve real problems.
3. Yes, a Good Depression Would Reveal Self-Destruct Bubble-Thinking
In a recent Atlantic article "Irrational Exuberance" author Robert Shiller warns: "Bubbles are primarily social phenomena. Until we understand and address the psychology that fuels them, they're going to keep forming."
Housing inflated 85% in a decade: "Historically unprecedented ... no rational basis for it." Today there's a huge excess housing inventory, higher-credit mortgages are now in jeopardy, the write-offs are now projected at $2 trillion -- on top of a $3 trillion war, $10 trillion federal budget, and more.
Bubble-thinking is contagious; it will trigger a pandemic. Shiller says "few people seem immune to boom thinking. The recent bubble grew so large partly because the very people responsible for the financial system's oversight came to share the general public's rosy expectations."
Unfortunately our leaders are still ignoring the underlying problem: Nothing is being done about "our psychological vulnerability to bubble-thinking."
Shiller then warns of a new megameltdown: "We recently lived through two epidemics of excessive financial optimism. I believe we are close to a third episode, only this one will spread irrational pessimism and distrust -- not exuberance ... our economic problems will become much worse than they need to be, and our social problems will multiply."
4. Yes, a Good Depression Will Stir Outrage, Force Real Reforms
In a recent Wall Street Journal article, Jim Grant, Forbes columnist and respected editor of the Interest Rate Observer, framed his title as a question: "Why No Outrage?" Why? He notes: "Through history, outrageous financial behavior has been met with outrage. But today Wall Street's damaging recklessness has been met with near-silence, from a too tolerant populace."
Tolerant? No, n-u-m-b! "Human progress seems to be the likeliest culprit." Fear-driven, we prefer the devil we know to a new one. Yet while "Wall Street may be sweating to fill out this year's bonus pool," Grant worries that Wall Street will run "itself and the rest of the American financial system right over a cliff." A Good Depression brings outrage.
5. Yes, Good Depression Forces Wall Street to Think Outside the Box
In a great Bloomberg Markets feature, "No Easy Fix," we're told Wall Street's "profit formula has hit a wall ... Wall Street's money-making machine is broken and efforts to repair it after the biggest losses in history are likely to undermine profits for years to come."
Merrill Lynch is a good example: It is selling 615 million new shares, a 38% dilution, while hanging on to "$30.6 billion in crummy derivatives," says Dennis Berman in the Wall Street Journal. Merrill's stock is about half the 2004 price of $55. Merrill "needs to come up with $2.8 billion in new profit, not sales, to get back to its 2004 per share earnings levels. That's $43,000 in new profit for each of Merrill's 65,000 employees."
Unfortunately, Merrill's cash cows (off-balance sheet gimmicks, derivatives, repackaged asset-backed securitization) that made megabucks the past decade "have largely disappeared. That puts the burden on Merrill's old-line businesses -- brokerage, asset management and investment banking."
Solutions? Cut costs, steal market share or "gradually start to take on more risk on Merrill's trading desks, which produced the bulk of the $30 billion in losses the past 12 months."
Warning: Expect more desperate, high-risk and stupid moves: A new BusinessWeek report says Wall Street's already lobbying Congress to raid America's $2.3 trillion "pension honey pot." Warning: These are the same greed-is-good Gordon Gekkos that brought us the last two rapid-fire meltdowns. Stop them before they turn the next into a Great Depression.
6. Yes, a Good Depression Can Prevent America's Decline and Fall
In "The Price of Liberty: Paying for America's Wars," Robert Hormats, Goldman Sachs international vice chairman, traces America's wartime financing from the Revolutionary War to present. Today we're "relying on faith over experience, hoping that sustained growth will erase deficits and that the ballooning costs of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will be manageable in the coming decades without difficult reforms."
Former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker put it in more ominous terms: "There are striking similarities between America's current situation and that of another great power from the past: Rome." They fell for three reasons "worth remembering: declining moral values and political civility at home, an overconfident and overextended military in foreign lands, and fiscal irresponsibility by the central government."
And Pulitzer Prize winning geographer Jared Diamond takes an even broader historical view in "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Succeed or Fail:" Many "civilizations share a sharp curve of decline. Indeed, a society's demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak population, wealth and power." He draws historical parallels with America in the past decade.
Warning: Wall Street's next meltdown won't be a mere statistical recession. Our monetary system, our financial system and our tax base are burning out. Like our overextended military, we are handicapped in our ability to face new threats, much as were Rome, the Mayans and other great civilizations.
7. Yes, a Good Depression Will Shock America's Warring Soul
President Bush said he's a "war president." The American economy is a war economy driven by our warring soul. We spend 54% of the tax dollar on war, 47% of the world's total military spending. A half century ago President Eisenhower warned of this "military industrial complex" that's running America into bankruptcy.
Today, our economy thrives on war and disasters, generating such "spectacular profits that many people around the world" are convinced America's "rich and powerful must be deliberately causing catastrophes so that they can exploit them" says Naomi Klein in "Shock Doctrine."
Klein's snapshot of Wall Street's soul is disturbing: "An economic system that requires constant growth, while bucking almost all serious attempts at environmental regulation, generates a steady stream of disasters all on its own, whether military, economical or financial. The appetite for easy, short profits offered by purely speculative investment has turned the stock, currency and real estate markets into crisis-creation machines"
Pray for a Good Depression ... before they trigger another Great Depression.
2008年8月13日 星期三
Some Live Without Credit Cards - Could You?
by LaRita Heet
Is there life without credit cards? And if so, is it worth living?
In today's instant gratification world, the thought of forgoing credit cards in favor of a cash-only lifestyle seems as foreign as mailing a handwritten letter through the post office: We know some people do it, but it's hard to understand why.
Yet there are those who have declared, "Enough is enough!" and dedicated themselves to lives sans credit cards.
According to the Fair Isaac Corp., creator of the popular FICO credit scoring model, about 20 to 25 million people in the United States do not have any credit. An additional 30 to 35 million U.S. residents have a minimal amount of credit history, according to Fair Isaac statistics. These figures mean that approximately one in five Americans do not have access to traditional credit.
The Federal Reserve Board Survey of Consumer Finances of 2004 showed that as many as one in four U.S. consumers live without credit cards. This triennial study of approximately 4,500 respondents showed that 74.9 percent of those surveyed had credit cards. José Garcia, senior researcher at Demos, a national, nonpartisan, public policy research organization, divides noncardholders into two groups: those who are unable to obtain credit cards, and those who choose not to use them.
No Credit, No Choice
According to Garcia, many of those without credit cards simply do not qualify for credit due to bad credit, no credit, immigration status or another reason.
Gail Cunningham, senior director of public relations for the National Foundation for Credit Counseling (NFCC), says such mixed feelings over credit cards are common. When, during NFCC debt-counseling sessions, debt-ridden consumers -- many of whom have already had their charging privileges suspended by the lender due to non-payment -- are asked to cut up their credit cards, the reactions are often extreme. "Some people are like, 'Give me those scissors! I never want to see plastic again,' while others will clutch one of their cards close to their heart and say, 'I loved this card,'" says Cunningham.
No Credit by Choice
Fifty-eight percent of credit cardholding households surveyed in the Fed's Survey of Consumer Finances had balances on their cards, and until a few years ago, J.D. Roth and Ashkan Amouzegar were among them. Roth, 39, of Portland, Ore., has charted his foray into a credit cardless lifestyle on his popular personal finance blog, Get Rich Slowly.
Amouzegar, 30, a Portland, Ore., resident and business consultant in merchant financial services, made the decision to stop using credit cards two years ago. Though the anti-credit card crowd decline plastic for reasons ranging from anti-debt religious convictions to extreme wealth (and lack of "need" for credit), Roth and Amouzegar stopped using credit cards to help rein in their spending habits and control their finances.
Amouzegar -- who once had 12 credit cards -- used to think nothing of using his plastic to buy his friends rounds of drinks and expensive dinners. Once, he confesses, he even took a monthlong trip to Paris with a friend -- and the entire trip was charged on his credit card.
"Through college and after, I used credit cards religiously and part of the problem was my irresponsibility of using it incorrectly. Most people, I think, don't view credit cards as a loan from the bank, but as extra income, and I viewed it as, 'Oh, my Citibank has a $5,000 limit' -- I thought it meant, 'I have $5,000 to spend now,'" says Amouzegar.
Amouzegar, now only two years away from being completely debt-free, chose to not only discontinue using his cards but to cancel all the accounts, including his "emergency card." The downside of no credit cards is that, even though financial experts advise consumers to save from three to six months' worth of income in an emergency savings fund, Amouzegar says, "Well, for a lot of people, that's not realistic. If there is a major car repair or something happens, what do you do if you don't have that emergency card? Knock on wood, I haven't been in that situation yet, but you never know when your refrigerator is going to go out. You never know when your car's going to blow up, or that you need to fly somewhere due to a family emergency."
NFCC's Cunningham agrees. "None of us has a very well-polished crystal ball to know what tomorrow's going to hold, and this person not using credit might think, 'I don't care; I'm not going to need credit in the future,' but we really don't know that," she says.
Like most non-credit cardholders, Amouzegar uses his Visa-logo debit card in those situations that traditionally demand a credit card: renting a car, booking a hotel room, purchasing airline tickets and making online purchases.
He has run into occasional glitches renting cars with his debit card, as on a recent vacation. "The downside was, when I went to Maui, they would have done a charge authorization on a credit card, but since I didn't have a credit card, they did it on my debit card, so they basically held $250 until I returned the car. So that tied up $250 out of my checking account."
Turned Off
In 1998, GetRichSlowly's Roth paid off his high-interest credit card debts with a lower interest rate home equity loan and now pays a single monthly payment. "When I did that, I made a vow to myself -- and I promised my wife -- that I was going to cut up my credit cards, and I did," says Roth. "It's perfectly possible to live a happy life without credit cards. They're not a requirement. It seems to me that in our society, we get hung up on the fact that we must have credit cards, but it's just not true."
"The reality is that the practices of credit card issuers can be harsh on individuals," Demos' Garcia says. "It is those types of practices -- tricks and traps -- that I think will stop consumers. I think we're seeing it more now due to that -- that people, after a bad experience with a credit card, have stopped using them."
Although it's easy to blame the banks for high credit card bills, skyrocketing interest rates, and never-decreasing card balances, Amouzegar says that while card-issuing banks may be "crafty," they are not dishonest. Instead, it's the fault of the cardholder when debts get out of control. "Those people might just be making minimum payments on a really high interest rate. I would question, 'How did that interest rate get sky-high?' Did they make a late payment before? Interest rates don't just automatically go to 18 percent or 24 percent -- there has to be something done by the cardholder to trigger the rate to go from a preferred rate all the way up."
Revolving vs. Nonrevolving Credit
Before canceling credit card accounts, stop to consider the long-term implications on your credit score, says NFCC's Cunningham, noting that both revolving credit (in the form of credit cards) and nonrevolving credit (in the form of installment loans, such as auto loans, mortgages or other fixed-rate loans) are factored into a person's credit score. "The elements that are weighed to create your credit score include a review of different types of credit, and how you handle those. For instance, a credit card is going to demonstrate how, if you pretty much have an open-end except for a credit ceiling, you can charge varying amounts each month, thus your payment each month is going to be different, and they like to see how you handle that, versus a fixed-rate loan," she says.
Those who have paid off and then canceled their credit card account may end up "hamstringing" future efforts to obtain credit, because that old account will eventually rotate off your credit report after a period of time (usually seven years), says Cunningham. "It's better to leave it open, because this is another element that is weighed in the credit-scoring model: They like to see longevity. They like to see that you've had an account open for a long time and handled it responsibly."
Closing a credit card account can also adversely impact your credit rating by changing your debt utilization ratio -- the amount of money you owe as compared to your available credit. For example, if you close an account with a $1,000 credit limit, your overall available credit number will lower, consequently skewing your debt utilization ratio.
The Bottom Line
Ask any personal finance expert, and she will agree that credit cards themselves are not the cause of anyone's debt. Instead, it's the misuse of credit that is to blame. Cunningham jokes about a sticker some debtors apply to their mirrors, which states simply: "You're looking at the problem."
Many people, once they've paid off their debts, are anxious to jump back on the credit card express to Debtville, says Cunningham. "A lot of people want to re-enter the world of credit simply because we live in a credit-dominated society."
"I think the most important thing is, get your credit card and pay it off at the end of the month," Garcia says.
According to Demos' research, many of those who don't pay off their balance in full every month simply cannot afford to, says Garcia. An increased cost of living, a set income and the lack of a financial safety net lead a lot of people into deepening debt, Garcia says. "So it's not as simple as wanting to pay your credit card off. But if you can, pay it off. That way, you have a revolving line of credit, which is very useful. It's short-term loans. Take the money upfront and then pay later so you don't pay any interest rate or fees. But again, that's not necessarily the reality with a lot of Americans and low-income individuals now that we're close to a recession."
Will Amouzegar rejoin the Land of the Plastic once he's paid off his debt? "No," he says without hesitation. "I personally don't have the restraint to not view credit as extra income. I think that after the process of having been in debt and paid it off, I think I've learned my lesson, but still the temptation is there."
"Ultimately, credit card companies are really a game, and you really have to be an educated consumer, and I think, be aggressive with them, because they bank on you not having knowledge," says Amouzegar.
The Alternatives to Credit Cards:
* Visa or MasterCard debit cards: Though a MasterCard or Visa debit card is typically a good credit card substitute, the downside is that, when it comes time to reserve a hotel room or rent a car, there's a good chance that the hotel or rental card agency will create a $200-$500 or more "hold" on the debit card, and leave you with significantly less available cash in the bank.
* Emergency fund: Financial experts recommend saving an emergency fund of three to six months' worth of living expenses in case you face an unexpected job or financial crisis.
* Installment loans from banks or credit unions: There are different installment loans available for different situations. The interest rates will be is fixed, with a set payoff date.
Is there life without credit cards? And if so, is it worth living?
In today's instant gratification world, the thought of forgoing credit cards in favor of a cash-only lifestyle seems as foreign as mailing a handwritten letter through the post office: We know some people do it, but it's hard to understand why.
Yet there are those who have declared, "Enough is enough!" and dedicated themselves to lives sans credit cards.
According to the Fair Isaac Corp., creator of the popular FICO credit scoring model, about 20 to 25 million people in the United States do not have any credit. An additional 30 to 35 million U.S. residents have a minimal amount of credit history, according to Fair Isaac statistics. These figures mean that approximately one in five Americans do not have access to traditional credit.
The Federal Reserve Board Survey of Consumer Finances of 2004 showed that as many as one in four U.S. consumers live without credit cards. This triennial study of approximately 4,500 respondents showed that 74.9 percent of those surveyed had credit cards. José Garcia, senior researcher at Demos, a national, nonpartisan, public policy research organization, divides noncardholders into two groups: those who are unable to obtain credit cards, and those who choose not to use them.
No Credit, No Choice
According to Garcia, many of those without credit cards simply do not qualify for credit due to bad credit, no credit, immigration status or another reason.
Gail Cunningham, senior director of public relations for the National Foundation for Credit Counseling (NFCC), says such mixed feelings over credit cards are common. When, during NFCC debt-counseling sessions, debt-ridden consumers -- many of whom have already had their charging privileges suspended by the lender due to non-payment -- are asked to cut up their credit cards, the reactions are often extreme. "Some people are like, 'Give me those scissors! I never want to see plastic again,' while others will clutch one of their cards close to their heart and say, 'I loved this card,'" says Cunningham.
No Credit by Choice
Fifty-eight percent of credit cardholding households surveyed in the Fed's Survey of Consumer Finances had balances on their cards, and until a few years ago, J.D. Roth and Ashkan Amouzegar were among them. Roth, 39, of Portland, Ore., has charted his foray into a credit cardless lifestyle on his popular personal finance blog, Get Rich Slowly.
Amouzegar, 30, a Portland, Ore., resident and business consultant in merchant financial services, made the decision to stop using credit cards two years ago. Though the anti-credit card crowd decline plastic for reasons ranging from anti-debt religious convictions to extreme wealth (and lack of "need" for credit), Roth and Amouzegar stopped using credit cards to help rein in their spending habits and control their finances.
Amouzegar -- who once had 12 credit cards -- used to think nothing of using his plastic to buy his friends rounds of drinks and expensive dinners. Once, he confesses, he even took a monthlong trip to Paris with a friend -- and the entire trip was charged on his credit card.
"Through college and after, I used credit cards religiously and part of the problem was my irresponsibility of using it incorrectly. Most people, I think, don't view credit cards as a loan from the bank, but as extra income, and I viewed it as, 'Oh, my Citibank has a $5,000 limit' -- I thought it meant, 'I have $5,000 to spend now,'" says Amouzegar.
Amouzegar, now only two years away from being completely debt-free, chose to not only discontinue using his cards but to cancel all the accounts, including his "emergency card." The downside of no credit cards is that, even though financial experts advise consumers to save from three to six months' worth of income in an emergency savings fund, Amouzegar says, "Well, for a lot of people, that's not realistic. If there is a major car repair or something happens, what do you do if you don't have that emergency card? Knock on wood, I haven't been in that situation yet, but you never know when your refrigerator is going to go out. You never know when your car's going to blow up, or that you need to fly somewhere due to a family emergency."
NFCC's Cunningham agrees. "None of us has a very well-polished crystal ball to know what tomorrow's going to hold, and this person not using credit might think, 'I don't care; I'm not going to need credit in the future,' but we really don't know that," she says.
Like most non-credit cardholders, Amouzegar uses his Visa-logo debit card in those situations that traditionally demand a credit card: renting a car, booking a hotel room, purchasing airline tickets and making online purchases.
He has run into occasional glitches renting cars with his debit card, as on a recent vacation. "The downside was, when I went to Maui, they would have done a charge authorization on a credit card, but since I didn't have a credit card, they did it on my debit card, so they basically held $250 until I returned the car. So that tied up $250 out of my checking account."
Turned Off
In 1998, GetRichSlowly's Roth paid off his high-interest credit card debts with a lower interest rate home equity loan and now pays a single monthly payment. "When I did that, I made a vow to myself -- and I promised my wife -- that I was going to cut up my credit cards, and I did," says Roth. "It's perfectly possible to live a happy life without credit cards. They're not a requirement. It seems to me that in our society, we get hung up on the fact that we must have credit cards, but it's just not true."
"The reality is that the practices of credit card issuers can be harsh on individuals," Demos' Garcia says. "It is those types of practices -- tricks and traps -- that I think will stop consumers. I think we're seeing it more now due to that -- that people, after a bad experience with a credit card, have stopped using them."
Although it's easy to blame the banks for high credit card bills, skyrocketing interest rates, and never-decreasing card balances, Amouzegar says that while card-issuing banks may be "crafty," they are not dishonest. Instead, it's the fault of the cardholder when debts get out of control. "Those people might just be making minimum payments on a really high interest rate. I would question, 'How did that interest rate get sky-high?' Did they make a late payment before? Interest rates don't just automatically go to 18 percent or 24 percent -- there has to be something done by the cardholder to trigger the rate to go from a preferred rate all the way up."
Revolving vs. Nonrevolving Credit
Before canceling credit card accounts, stop to consider the long-term implications on your credit score, says NFCC's Cunningham, noting that both revolving credit (in the form of credit cards) and nonrevolving credit (in the form of installment loans, such as auto loans, mortgages or other fixed-rate loans) are factored into a person's credit score. "The elements that are weighed to create your credit score include a review of different types of credit, and how you handle those. For instance, a credit card is going to demonstrate how, if you pretty much have an open-end except for a credit ceiling, you can charge varying amounts each month, thus your payment each month is going to be different, and they like to see how you handle that, versus a fixed-rate loan," she says.
Those who have paid off and then canceled their credit card account may end up "hamstringing" future efforts to obtain credit, because that old account will eventually rotate off your credit report after a period of time (usually seven years), says Cunningham. "It's better to leave it open, because this is another element that is weighed in the credit-scoring model: They like to see longevity. They like to see that you've had an account open for a long time and handled it responsibly."
Closing a credit card account can also adversely impact your credit rating by changing your debt utilization ratio -- the amount of money you owe as compared to your available credit. For example, if you close an account with a $1,000 credit limit, your overall available credit number will lower, consequently skewing your debt utilization ratio.
The Bottom Line
Ask any personal finance expert, and she will agree that credit cards themselves are not the cause of anyone's debt. Instead, it's the misuse of credit that is to blame. Cunningham jokes about a sticker some debtors apply to their mirrors, which states simply: "You're looking at the problem."
Many people, once they've paid off their debts, are anxious to jump back on the credit card express to Debtville, says Cunningham. "A lot of people want to re-enter the world of credit simply because we live in a credit-dominated society."
"I think the most important thing is, get your credit card and pay it off at the end of the month," Garcia says.
According to Demos' research, many of those who don't pay off their balance in full every month simply cannot afford to, says Garcia. An increased cost of living, a set income and the lack of a financial safety net lead a lot of people into deepening debt, Garcia says. "So it's not as simple as wanting to pay your credit card off. But if you can, pay it off. That way, you have a revolving line of credit, which is very useful. It's short-term loans. Take the money upfront and then pay later so you don't pay any interest rate or fees. But again, that's not necessarily the reality with a lot of Americans and low-income individuals now that we're close to a recession."
Will Amouzegar rejoin the Land of the Plastic once he's paid off his debt? "No," he says without hesitation. "I personally don't have the restraint to not view credit as extra income. I think that after the process of having been in debt and paid it off, I think I've learned my lesson, but still the temptation is there."
"Ultimately, credit card companies are really a game, and you really have to be an educated consumer, and I think, be aggressive with them, because they bank on you not having knowledge," says Amouzegar.
The Alternatives to Credit Cards:
* Visa or MasterCard debit cards: Though a MasterCard or Visa debit card is typically a good credit card substitute, the downside is that, when it comes time to reserve a hotel room or rent a car, there's a good chance that the hotel or rental card agency will create a $200-$500 or more "hold" on the debit card, and leave you with significantly less available cash in the bank.
* Emergency fund: Financial experts recommend saving an emergency fund of three to six months' worth of living expenses in case you face an unexpected job or financial crisis.
* Installment loans from banks or credit unions: There are different installment loans available for different situations. The interest rates will be is fixed, with a set payoff date.
2008年8月12日 星期二
A Cold, Hard Fact: Prepare for Higher Heating Costs Now
by Suze Orman, MONEY MATTERS
There's another big housing bill in your future. No, I'm not talking about your potential taxpayer share of the recently passed federal housing bill if we ultimately get stuck with the tab for bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Prices Heat Up
What's on my radar right now -- and should be on yours -- is what it's going to cost to stay warm this winter. I realize it's probably sweltering where you live right now, but, as with all financial matters, you need to look down the road to see what might be coming up. And the news is not good, my friends: The same pain at the gas pump you've been dealing with for months is going to play out in your home heating bills.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a gallon of heating oil this winter could be 40 percent more expensive than it was last winter. And it's not as if last winter's heating bill was cheap; if the EIA forecast plays out as expected, a gallon of heating oil will be about 85 percent higher this coming February than it was two years ago.
Not worried because you use natural gas? The news is just as bleak, as prices are forecast to be about 45 percent higher this coming winter. Those of you relying on propane could face an even steeper increase. Electricity? Well, it's going to be a relative deal: The forecast is for retail electricity to be just 10 percent higher this winter compared to last. But let's face it, that's still a steep climb.
Clearly, it's time to get serious about a strategy for managing this winter's higher heating costs. Here are some steps to take:
• Get On a Manageable Payment Plan
Check in with your utility company now to see if there are any special payment plans available to avoid bill shock in the depth of winter. You may be able to switch to a plan that spreads out your payments across the entire year rather than having a big hike in the winter.
Of course, that means a higher average monthly bill in the temperate months. But the idea is that your budget can handle that easier than a huge hike in the winter.
• Winter-Proof Your House
Spend a day getting your home ready for winter to trim a few hundred dollars off your energy bills. I'm not going to suggest big-ticket projects such as re-insulating the roof; that's a great cost-saver over time that makes tremendous sense if you have the money to do it, of course, but your budget is probably already pretty stressed right now. I'm talking about small outlays that can net you big savings.
Start with the programmable thermostat. If you get strategic about lowering the temperature in the day when you're not around and late at night when you're tucked under the comforter, you may be able to cut your heating costs by 20 percent. That can go a long way toward offsetting this year's higher utility bills. You can pick up a programmable thermostat at any home-improvement store for $50 or so.
While you're at the store, pick up some caulking and weather-stripping supplies. Spend a few hours plugging up any gaps in your heating ducts and blocking out window and door drafts. These steps will save some serious money.
• Look for Hidden Savings Opportunities
I'm not a big fan of penny-by-penny budget-watching -- life is too short and free time too fleeting to spend it poring over a spreadsheet. But I do think everyone should take a serious look at their spending patterns at least once or twice a year and reevaluate their position, especially right now, when living costs are through the roof.
You know where I'm going with this: A cell phone plan or cable plan that may have been affordable a year or two ago could be a great place to find some hidden savings to deal with today's budget crunch. I bet many of you could easily reduce these bills by a combined $100 a month if you shifted to a less-inclusive plan. So no more inertia, no more excuses: Go online or brace yourself for an annoying call to customer service and get the switch done today.
If you have an emergency savings account to handle any unexpected costs, I'd also recommend you look into raising the deductibles on all your insurance coverage. It's a great way to reduce your premium costs by at least 10 percent. Again, it takes one call to lock in permanent savings.
• Give Yourself a Break for the Holidays
Talking about winter gets me thinking about the holidays and the gift trap I see so many of you fall into. Invariably, in January and February I'm inundated with calls and emails from people with an expensive gift-giving hangover: They're staring at big credit card bills they have no way of paying off.
If you wait until December to start thinking about holiday gifts, chances are you'll just whip out the card and make plenty of last-minute purchases. An alternative is to rope your family (and friends) into a conversation now about how you can all come up with a more manageable gift-giving plan.
Having a talk now, months before the holiday frenzy, makes for an easier conversation. Don't be shy or apologetic -- living within your means is something to be proud of. One obvious move is for all adults to agree that they don't need to exchange gifts. Keep the focus on the kids. But really, does every aunt, uncle, and grandparent have to shower every kid with a gift? I don't think so. How about one special group gift to each child instead?
Don't worry about what the kids will think. Spending more money than you can afford on gifts for them isn't a sign of love. Besides, instituting a new family-wide tradition that takes planning and thought and involves everyone is the sort of positive energy that should define the holidays. To say nothing of the financial benefit it will produce this winter, when energy costs are sky high.
There's another big housing bill in your future. No, I'm not talking about your potential taxpayer share of the recently passed federal housing bill if we ultimately get stuck with the tab for bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Prices Heat Up
What's on my radar right now -- and should be on yours -- is what it's going to cost to stay warm this winter. I realize it's probably sweltering where you live right now, but, as with all financial matters, you need to look down the road to see what might be coming up. And the news is not good, my friends: The same pain at the gas pump you've been dealing with for months is going to play out in your home heating bills.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a gallon of heating oil this winter could be 40 percent more expensive than it was last winter. And it's not as if last winter's heating bill was cheap; if the EIA forecast plays out as expected, a gallon of heating oil will be about 85 percent higher this coming February than it was two years ago.
Not worried because you use natural gas? The news is just as bleak, as prices are forecast to be about 45 percent higher this coming winter. Those of you relying on propane could face an even steeper increase. Electricity? Well, it's going to be a relative deal: The forecast is for retail electricity to be just 10 percent higher this winter compared to last. But let's face it, that's still a steep climb.
Clearly, it's time to get serious about a strategy for managing this winter's higher heating costs. Here are some steps to take:
• Get On a Manageable Payment Plan
Check in with your utility company now to see if there are any special payment plans available to avoid bill shock in the depth of winter. You may be able to switch to a plan that spreads out your payments across the entire year rather than having a big hike in the winter.
Of course, that means a higher average monthly bill in the temperate months. But the idea is that your budget can handle that easier than a huge hike in the winter.
• Winter-Proof Your House
Spend a day getting your home ready for winter to trim a few hundred dollars off your energy bills. I'm not going to suggest big-ticket projects such as re-insulating the roof; that's a great cost-saver over time that makes tremendous sense if you have the money to do it, of course, but your budget is probably already pretty stressed right now. I'm talking about small outlays that can net you big savings.
Start with the programmable thermostat. If you get strategic about lowering the temperature in the day when you're not around and late at night when you're tucked under the comforter, you may be able to cut your heating costs by 20 percent. That can go a long way toward offsetting this year's higher utility bills. You can pick up a programmable thermostat at any home-improvement store for $50 or so.
While you're at the store, pick up some caulking and weather-stripping supplies. Spend a few hours plugging up any gaps in your heating ducts and blocking out window and door drafts. These steps will save some serious money.
• Look for Hidden Savings Opportunities
I'm not a big fan of penny-by-penny budget-watching -- life is too short and free time too fleeting to spend it poring over a spreadsheet. But I do think everyone should take a serious look at their spending patterns at least once or twice a year and reevaluate their position, especially right now, when living costs are through the roof.
You know where I'm going with this: A cell phone plan or cable plan that may have been affordable a year or two ago could be a great place to find some hidden savings to deal with today's budget crunch. I bet many of you could easily reduce these bills by a combined $100 a month if you shifted to a less-inclusive plan. So no more inertia, no more excuses: Go online or brace yourself for an annoying call to customer service and get the switch done today.
If you have an emergency savings account to handle any unexpected costs, I'd also recommend you look into raising the deductibles on all your insurance coverage. It's a great way to reduce your premium costs by at least 10 percent. Again, it takes one call to lock in permanent savings.
• Give Yourself a Break for the Holidays
Talking about winter gets me thinking about the holidays and the gift trap I see so many of you fall into. Invariably, in January and February I'm inundated with calls and emails from people with an expensive gift-giving hangover: They're staring at big credit card bills they have no way of paying off.
If you wait until December to start thinking about holiday gifts, chances are you'll just whip out the card and make plenty of last-minute purchases. An alternative is to rope your family (and friends) into a conversation now about how you can all come up with a more manageable gift-giving plan.
Having a talk now, months before the holiday frenzy, makes for an easier conversation. Don't be shy or apologetic -- living within your means is something to be proud of. One obvious move is for all adults to agree that they don't need to exchange gifts. Keep the focus on the kids. But really, does every aunt, uncle, and grandparent have to shower every kid with a gift? I don't think so. How about one special group gift to each child instead?
Don't worry about what the kids will think. Spending more money than you can afford on gifts for them isn't a sign of love. Besides, instituting a new family-wide tradition that takes planning and thought and involves everyone is the sort of positive energy that should define the holidays. To say nothing of the financial benefit it will produce this winter, when energy costs are sky high.
2008年8月11日 星期一
China and the IOC are a match made in heaven
By Marina Hyde, THE GUARDIAN, BEIJING
By the time you read this, world peace should have broken out. It should have broken out at precisely 8:08pm Beijing time on Friday, because International Olympic Committee (IOC) president Jacques Rogge made his traditional plea for a worldwide military truce for the duration of the Games. Yet on the off chance that the Taliban are not laying in supplies of popcorn and preparing for two weeks on the sofa, and US and British soldiers are not garlanding their tanks with flowers, now might be the time to question the IOC’s preposterously idealized version of itself.
There’s nothing wrong with calling for world peace, of course — beauty queens do it all the time. But you do need to follow it up with something special in the swimsuit round, and one can’t help feeling that the more of itself the IOC bares, the more hideous it appears.
The little guy
Strip away the grandiose statements, and an examination of how it treats the little guy should tell you all you need to know. Joey Cheek is the former US speedskating gold medallist who cofounded Team Darfur, the international athletes’ coalition that highlights the crisis in Sudan. Hours before he was due to travel to Beijing last week, his visa was summarily revoked by the Chinese government. Asked to comment on this blatant attempt to suppress an Olympic hero, an IOC droid explained “non-accredited persons do not fall within the IOC’s remit.”
Isn’t it amazing how swiftly one passes from being the winner of the Olympic Spirit Award to the status of “non-accredited person?” Two years ago Cheek won the honor following the winter Games in Turin, Italy, after donating his medal bonuses to a sport aid organization. Today, he lacks the requisite paperwork to merit even an IOC platitude.
The decision to award the Games to Beijing was always morally compromised — luminously so — and yet again the IOC find themselves highlighting their own absurdity. You can’t call for an immediate cessation of hostilities around the globe and in the next breath decline to get involved in a serious humanitarian issue because a former gold medallist doesn’t have the right accreditation pass. It’s like demanding an end to poverty then refusing to give tuppence to a beggar on the basis that he isn’t wearing a club tie.
Amazingly, it’s not even the IOC’s most unedifying moment of the past two weeks. That honor belongs to their decision to suspend the entire Iraqi Olympic team on the basis that the country’s National Olympic Committee (NOC) had not been properly recognized by the IOC. Clearly, Iraq’s real crime was not having the right paperwork, though before rescinding the ban on some (but not all) of the athletes, the IOC muttered that it was because of suspicions of “political interference in the Olympic movement.”
Two weeks ago I asked them to clarify why they had never suspected political interference when Uday Hussein was chairman of the NOC. Unfortunately, they were far too grand to comment, but having since read senior IOC member Dick Pound’s book, I discover that they couldn’t be sure that Uday was a political placeman. Thank God they didn’t put two and two together and make five.
Questionable Politics
Instead, they focus on issuing directives forbidding athletes from making any political statements. Surely it’s time the IOC re-examined their definition of what it means to be political. It seems entirely acceptable for states to politicize the Games by using them as propaganda, and for corporations to do the same (22 years of McDonald’s sponsorship feels faintly agenda-driven). Only the athletes are warned not to step out of line.
Priorities being what they are, the IOC did not bother to issue similar directives instructing China not to bulldoze homes to make way for the new Beijing. And yet they must have known this would happen, as so many Games have been preceded by what we might euphemistically describe as a tidying away of humans who don’t match the decor. Consider Mexico City, where police opened fire and killed hundreds of student protesters; or Atlanta, Georgia, where the organizing committee actually built the jail to which many people who committed new offences on the city statute book — like lying down in the street — were dispatched.
This is not “peace through sport.” These things happen precisely because the Olympic Games are coming to town, and it should be the IOC’s job to ensure that what is an amazing, inspiring world event does not come at the expense of the vulnerable.
Perhaps the most chillingly revelatory moment in Pound’s book is a quote from former IOC president Juan Antonio Samaranch, explaining why it was preferable for Games to be staged in closed societies or dictatorships.
“‘Leesten, Deek,’ he said to me at one point. ‘For [the Olympics], it is much better to go to these countries. There will never be security problems,’” Pound quoted Samaranch as saying.
Now some Beijing street signs bear the instruction “Stay in to make space for foreign friends.” Stay in, stay grateful, stay schtum (quiet).
Watching the IOC grease up to the Chinese government, one can only wonder sarcastically what on earth attracted this one set of appalling old waxworks to the other — apart from a straightforward Narcissus complex.
By the time you read this, world peace should have broken out. It should have broken out at precisely 8:08pm Beijing time on Friday, because International Olympic Committee (IOC) president Jacques Rogge made his traditional plea for a worldwide military truce for the duration of the Games. Yet on the off chance that the Taliban are not laying in supplies of popcorn and preparing for two weeks on the sofa, and US and British soldiers are not garlanding their tanks with flowers, now might be the time to question the IOC’s preposterously idealized version of itself.
There’s nothing wrong with calling for world peace, of course — beauty queens do it all the time. But you do need to follow it up with something special in the swimsuit round, and one can’t help feeling that the more of itself the IOC bares, the more hideous it appears.
The little guy
Strip away the grandiose statements, and an examination of how it treats the little guy should tell you all you need to know. Joey Cheek is the former US speedskating gold medallist who cofounded Team Darfur, the international athletes’ coalition that highlights the crisis in Sudan. Hours before he was due to travel to Beijing last week, his visa was summarily revoked by the Chinese government. Asked to comment on this blatant attempt to suppress an Olympic hero, an IOC droid explained “non-accredited persons do not fall within the IOC’s remit.”
Isn’t it amazing how swiftly one passes from being the winner of the Olympic Spirit Award to the status of “non-accredited person?” Two years ago Cheek won the honor following the winter Games in Turin, Italy, after donating his medal bonuses to a sport aid organization. Today, he lacks the requisite paperwork to merit even an IOC platitude.
The decision to award the Games to Beijing was always morally compromised — luminously so — and yet again the IOC find themselves highlighting their own absurdity. You can’t call for an immediate cessation of hostilities around the globe and in the next breath decline to get involved in a serious humanitarian issue because a former gold medallist doesn’t have the right accreditation pass. It’s like demanding an end to poverty then refusing to give tuppence to a beggar on the basis that he isn’t wearing a club tie.
Amazingly, it’s not even the IOC’s most unedifying moment of the past two weeks. That honor belongs to their decision to suspend the entire Iraqi Olympic team on the basis that the country’s National Olympic Committee (NOC) had not been properly recognized by the IOC. Clearly, Iraq’s real crime was not having the right paperwork, though before rescinding the ban on some (but not all) of the athletes, the IOC muttered that it was because of suspicions of “political interference in the Olympic movement.”
Two weeks ago I asked them to clarify why they had never suspected political interference when Uday Hussein was chairman of the NOC. Unfortunately, they were far too grand to comment, but having since read senior IOC member Dick Pound’s book, I discover that they couldn’t be sure that Uday was a political placeman. Thank God they didn’t put two and two together and make five.
Questionable Politics
Instead, they focus on issuing directives forbidding athletes from making any political statements. Surely it’s time the IOC re-examined their definition of what it means to be political. It seems entirely acceptable for states to politicize the Games by using them as propaganda, and for corporations to do the same (22 years of McDonald’s sponsorship feels faintly agenda-driven). Only the athletes are warned not to step out of line.
Priorities being what they are, the IOC did not bother to issue similar directives instructing China not to bulldoze homes to make way for the new Beijing. And yet they must have known this would happen, as so many Games have been preceded by what we might euphemistically describe as a tidying away of humans who don’t match the decor. Consider Mexico City, where police opened fire and killed hundreds of student protesters; or Atlanta, Georgia, where the organizing committee actually built the jail to which many people who committed new offences on the city statute book — like lying down in the street — were dispatched.
This is not “peace through sport.” These things happen precisely because the Olympic Games are coming to town, and it should be the IOC’s job to ensure that what is an amazing, inspiring world event does not come at the expense of the vulnerable.
Perhaps the most chillingly revelatory moment in Pound’s book is a quote from former IOC president Juan Antonio Samaranch, explaining why it was preferable for Games to be staged in closed societies or dictatorships.
“‘Leesten, Deek,’ he said to me at one point. ‘For [the Olympics], it is much better to go to these countries. There will never be security problems,’” Pound quoted Samaranch as saying.
Now some Beijing street signs bear the instruction “Stay in to make space for foreign friends.” Stay in, stay grateful, stay schtum (quiet).
Watching the IOC grease up to the Chinese government, one can only wonder sarcastically what on earth attracted this one set of appalling old waxworks to the other — apart from a straightforward Narcissus complex.
2008年8月5日 星期二
2008年8月3日 星期日
Four Habits of Financially Peaceful People
by Laura Rowley
Last week, I reported on the results of a new survey by Yahoo! Finance and Decipher, which found many Americans struggling with anxiety in their financial lives. This week, I'll take a look at some people who have found financial peace -- and the habits they share.
1. They know exactly where their money goes.
Danny Kofke, 32, has been a special education teacher in suburban Atlanta for a decade. He wrote the book "How to Survive (and Perhaps Thrive) on a Teacher's Salary" based on his experience supporting a family of four on $37,000 a year.
"The number-one reason people are so far into debt is they don't know where the money is going," says Kofke, who is married with two daughters, ages four and one. "When we got married, we walked around with a pad for a month and wrote down everything we spent. After that we used a cash system -- we pulled $200 a week out of the ATM and left it in jar in our apartment. It's so much harder to spend the green stuff than swiping a piece of plastic through a machine."
When friends ask for advice, Kofke shows them how their money evaporates in drips and drops. "It's not the huge purchases, it's everyday occurrences they don't think twice about -- eating lunch out every day, going to the movies every week, or getting overdraft charges because they don't balance their checkbooks," he says.
Keep it simple: Write down every penny you spend for one or two months, examining those numbers and setting priorities. I use online software called Mvelopes to track my spending electronically; other people like Quicken or Microsoft Money. Find the method that works for you and stick with it.
2. They know what they want their money to do.
Financially peaceful people focus on two or three big goals they value, set a timeline, and then break the goal into smaller steps. They automate their savings through a weekly or monthly electronic transfer to a savings account, or by participating in a 401(k) plan. Meanwhile, focusing intensely on your own goals helps you avoid competing with the Joneses.
"I had a plan to retire," says Nicholas Fiduccia, a former computer hardware designer in Silicon Valley who recently left the workforce at age 50 and now lives in Oregon. "Sometime around 2000, I decided it was time to think about hanging up my career. I made plans by reading investment books, talking to money-wise friends and professionals, and attending retirement classes. Today, my philosophy is pretty simple: low-cost, diversified index funds, rebalanced every two years."
Similarly, several years before they had children, Kofke and his wife decided she would quit teaching and stay home with them full time. "We worked four years on one salary and put as much of her salary away as we could," he says. "We never got used to that second salary, so the loss of her income doesn't affect us as much."
3. They either don't carry revolving debt, or have a specific plan to pay it down.
"Plan your work and work your plan," says Mary Lena Anderegg, 65, a retired teacher who lives in Georgia with her spouse of 33 years. "Our first goal was to own a home outright in fifteen years, and in seven years we did. You have a lot more freedom to stamp your foot and say, 'This is how it shall be' if you own the land you're stamping your foot on."
Anderegg's husband was a homebuilder, and together they bought and flipped real estate back in the '80s, moving five times. That enabled her to get a Ph.D. with no debt. They lived on 30 to 40 percent of their income -- growing vegetables, hosting kids' clothing swaps, cutting utility bills, buying and maintaining used cars, and doing part-time or consulting work, putting the extra toward long-term goals.
In 1992, Anderegg's husband had a heart attack that left him unable to work -- and $40,000 in medical bills their health insurance didn't cover. "We wiped our savings clean because didn't want to incur debt," she recalls. Because they lived on less than half their earnings, they were able to make it on her salary -- and pay off the medical bills in just three years.
In 2000, they retired; they bought and fixed up a home near the ocean, and have traveled to Europe and Japan -- all with no debt. "Our rule is ‘If you want it badly enough to save for it, it's probably worth having,'" she says.
Small changes make a huge difference in banishing debt. If you put $1,000 on a credit card at 18 percent and make just minimum payments, it will take 12 years to pay off and cost $1,100 in interest. Put $20 more a month toward that card and it would be paid off in two years and a few months, with only $226 in interest. (Check out this calculator to see how an extra payment affects your payoff time.)
4. They invest in their job skills, and don't expand their lifestyles as fast as their salaries.
Rodger Oren was laid off in 2000 from an information technology position with a large manufacturing firm. "With my wife working, we had structured our expenses to live on the lesser of the two salaries," he says. "I could have bought a bigger house and better car, but I didn't. As a result, we didn't lose our house, auto, or incur debt from the ordeal."
Oren says he has always lived below his means thanks to the inspiration of his parents, who endured the Depression, and by watching manufacturing jobs disappear in his native Pennsylvania.
"I remember guys who were fifty-five years old coming out of McDonalds at shift changes" because it was the only job they could find after the steel mills closed, he recalls. "You can't live paycheck to paycheck -- you can't do that to yourself. I don't have as much as I would like, but I do sleep well at night regarding finances."
Oren banked his severance pay and jumped almost immediately into a college teaching job. By consulting on the side, he made 60 to 80 percent of his old salary, and kept hunting for IT positions. "I probably sent out thousands of resumes; I lost count," he says.
Ultimately, maintaining his career did require a temporary adjustment: He lives in Tennessee; his wife and two sons -- one starting medical school, the other in high school -- live in Georgia. "I'm ex-military, and sometimes you have to make sacrifices," says Oren, who served four years in the U.S. Air Force. "It's no different than if I was deployed somewhere." In the meantime, they visit back and forth on weekends and plan to reunite in two years, when his younger son graduates.
Oren shifted from manufacturing to the health-care sector and is working on his doctorate at night. When the IT security officer left last year, Oren volunteered to take on his duties for the learning opportunity.
"It increased my marketability; you always have to keep contemporary skills, look at the marketplace, and know where the trends are moving," he says. "With globalization, we have no idea what's going to happen -- you have to be fleet of foot, nimble, and adaptable."
For more habits of financially peaceful people, see my blog.
Last week, I reported on the results of a new survey by Yahoo! Finance and Decipher, which found many Americans struggling with anxiety in their financial lives. This week, I'll take a look at some people who have found financial peace -- and the habits they share.
1. They know exactly where their money goes.
Danny Kofke, 32, has been a special education teacher in suburban Atlanta for a decade. He wrote the book "How to Survive (and Perhaps Thrive) on a Teacher's Salary" based on his experience supporting a family of four on $37,000 a year.
"The number-one reason people are so far into debt is they don't know where the money is going," says Kofke, who is married with two daughters, ages four and one. "When we got married, we walked around with a pad for a month and wrote down everything we spent. After that we used a cash system -- we pulled $200 a week out of the ATM and left it in jar in our apartment. It's so much harder to spend the green stuff than swiping a piece of plastic through a machine."
When friends ask for advice, Kofke shows them how their money evaporates in drips and drops. "It's not the huge purchases, it's everyday occurrences they don't think twice about -- eating lunch out every day, going to the movies every week, or getting overdraft charges because they don't balance their checkbooks," he says.
Keep it simple: Write down every penny you spend for one or two months, examining those numbers and setting priorities. I use online software called Mvelopes to track my spending electronically; other people like Quicken or Microsoft Money. Find the method that works for you and stick with it.
2. They know what they want their money to do.
Financially peaceful people focus on two or three big goals they value, set a timeline, and then break the goal into smaller steps. They automate their savings through a weekly or monthly electronic transfer to a savings account, or by participating in a 401(k) plan. Meanwhile, focusing intensely on your own goals helps you avoid competing with the Joneses.
"I had a plan to retire," says Nicholas Fiduccia, a former computer hardware designer in Silicon Valley who recently left the workforce at age 50 and now lives in Oregon. "Sometime around 2000, I decided it was time to think about hanging up my career. I made plans by reading investment books, talking to money-wise friends and professionals, and attending retirement classes. Today, my philosophy is pretty simple: low-cost, diversified index funds, rebalanced every two years."
Similarly, several years before they had children, Kofke and his wife decided she would quit teaching and stay home with them full time. "We worked four years on one salary and put as much of her salary away as we could," he says. "We never got used to that second salary, so the loss of her income doesn't affect us as much."
3. They either don't carry revolving debt, or have a specific plan to pay it down.
"Plan your work and work your plan," says Mary Lena Anderegg, 65, a retired teacher who lives in Georgia with her spouse of 33 years. "Our first goal was to own a home outright in fifteen years, and in seven years we did. You have a lot more freedom to stamp your foot and say, 'This is how it shall be' if you own the land you're stamping your foot on."
Anderegg's husband was a homebuilder, and together they bought and flipped real estate back in the '80s, moving five times. That enabled her to get a Ph.D. with no debt. They lived on 30 to 40 percent of their income -- growing vegetables, hosting kids' clothing swaps, cutting utility bills, buying and maintaining used cars, and doing part-time or consulting work, putting the extra toward long-term goals.
In 1992, Anderegg's husband had a heart attack that left him unable to work -- and $40,000 in medical bills their health insurance didn't cover. "We wiped our savings clean because didn't want to incur debt," she recalls. Because they lived on less than half their earnings, they were able to make it on her salary -- and pay off the medical bills in just three years.
In 2000, they retired; they bought and fixed up a home near the ocean, and have traveled to Europe and Japan -- all with no debt. "Our rule is ‘If you want it badly enough to save for it, it's probably worth having,'" she says.
Small changes make a huge difference in banishing debt. If you put $1,000 on a credit card at 18 percent and make just minimum payments, it will take 12 years to pay off and cost $1,100 in interest. Put $20 more a month toward that card and it would be paid off in two years and a few months, with only $226 in interest. (Check out this calculator to see how an extra payment affects your payoff time.)
4. They invest in their job skills, and don't expand their lifestyles as fast as their salaries.
Rodger Oren was laid off in 2000 from an information technology position with a large manufacturing firm. "With my wife working, we had structured our expenses to live on the lesser of the two salaries," he says. "I could have bought a bigger house and better car, but I didn't. As a result, we didn't lose our house, auto, or incur debt from the ordeal."
Oren says he has always lived below his means thanks to the inspiration of his parents, who endured the Depression, and by watching manufacturing jobs disappear in his native Pennsylvania.
"I remember guys who were fifty-five years old coming out of McDonalds at shift changes" because it was the only job they could find after the steel mills closed, he recalls. "You can't live paycheck to paycheck -- you can't do that to yourself. I don't have as much as I would like, but I do sleep well at night regarding finances."
Oren banked his severance pay and jumped almost immediately into a college teaching job. By consulting on the side, he made 60 to 80 percent of his old salary, and kept hunting for IT positions. "I probably sent out thousands of resumes; I lost count," he says.
Ultimately, maintaining his career did require a temporary adjustment: He lives in Tennessee; his wife and two sons -- one starting medical school, the other in high school -- live in Georgia. "I'm ex-military, and sometimes you have to make sacrifices," says Oren, who served four years in the U.S. Air Force. "It's no different than if I was deployed somewhere." In the meantime, they visit back and forth on weekends and plan to reunite in two years, when his younger son graduates.
Oren shifted from manufacturing to the health-care sector and is working on his doctorate at night. When the IT security officer left last year, Oren volunteered to take on his duties for the learning opportunity.
"It increased my marketability; you always have to keep contemporary skills, look at the marketplace, and know where the trends are moving," he says. "With globalization, we have no idea what's going to happen -- you have to be fleet of foot, nimble, and adaptable."
For more habits of financially peaceful people, see my blog.
2008年7月3日 星期四
Solution to Stagflation
Stagflation is a term describing an economy with both stagnation, which is basically recession and inflation at the same time.
It's a tricky situation for governments because the monetary tools available cannot solve both problems at the same time, and more so, using one tool to relieve the effects of one condition exacerbates the other.
Raising interest rates is believed to exacerbate stagnation, and the primary stagnation-fighting tool of lowering interest rates will exacerbate inflation.
According to Mr. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell, there is one, and only one, solution to stagflation which is to raise interest rates to cure inflation and increase deficit spending to cure stagnation.
Will the solution stated here be the course of action governments partake?
It's a tricky situation for governments because the monetary tools available cannot solve both problems at the same time, and more so, using one tool to relieve the effects of one condition exacerbates the other.
Raising interest rates is believed to exacerbate stagnation, and the primary stagnation-fighting tool of lowering interest rates will exacerbate inflation.
According to Mr. Rodger Malcolm Mitchell, there is one, and only one, solution to stagflation which is to raise interest rates to cure inflation and increase deficit spending to cure stagnation.
Will the solution stated here be the course of action governments partake?
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